David M Rothschild on Posted on

May 18 at 6:36 ET: Our predictions, once again, came out very strongly. Looking at our initial predictions on Monday, before the first of the semi-finals, we had the most likely winners as: Denmark (41%), Ukraine (11%), Norway (11%), Russia (6%) and Azerbaijan (5%). The final order was: Denmark (predicted winner), Azerbaijan (5th most likely), Ukraine (2nd most likely), Norway (3rd most likely), Russia (4th most likely). In other words our 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 finished 1, 3, 4, 5, and 2 … This is definitely another triumph for our domain independent prediction technology. More to come tomorrow …

May 18 at 6:05 ET: Halfway through the voting and only two viable countries left Denmark (89%) and Ukraine (7%). Of course, this was our initial top and second predictions for first place.

5:58 PM via ET Twitter: Calling it for Denmark with 17 of 39 countries voting! #ev2013

5:51 PM via ET Twitter: It is now officially at 2 team race between Azerbaijan and
Denmark at #EV2013!

May 18 at 5:15 ET: The songs have been songs and the voting has begun! I am amazed at how little impact the actual singing had on the predictions. With no major miscues by the favorites and tons of pre-event publicity over their songs you would expect the impact on the predictions to be dulled a little, but not this much. That being said, with the singing over we have the following current predictions to win: Denmark at 56%, Norway at 13%, Ukraine at 10%, Russia at 5%, and Greece at 3%.

4:59 PM ET via ET Twitter: Almost done the song portion of #ev2013:
still have Denmark as the favorite and Spain as my most likely last: ow.ly/larbE

4:29 PM ET via ET Twitter: Top worldwide trend on twitter is #EV2013.
Unsure what it means, 6th top trend #Eurovision2013:
real-time forecast: ow.ly/lapuc
May 18 at 12:00 ET: On Monday, May 13, I cemented my pre-Eurovision 2013 predictions with Denmark at 41% likely to win. After a strong semi-final performance, and the field shrinking from 39 to 26 competitors, my prediction on the eve of the final now has Denmark at 55% likely to win. Norway is the second most likely winner at 14%, followed by Russia and Ukraine at 5%. You can follow predictions live as they update during the competition tonight here: