12:35 PM ET: My final thought for the night is that this is another case of pundits and insiders advertising a close event when the proper aggregation of data said it was not. As I noted on Twitter earlier, my acceptance speech is short. I would like to thank prediction markets for efficiently aggregating dispersed and idiosyncratic data. And, thank you to Miro Dudik and Deepak Pathak for crunching the data with me on the paper that determined the methodology for these predictions. And, thank you to Andrew Leonard and David Pennock for helping to make PredictWise a destination for data-driven prognostication! Good night … and, one last time, 21 for 24!!!
12:15 PM ET: There are two ways to judge accuracy. First, and most obvious, you want a small error. Correctly predicting 21 out of 24 categories and having non-negligible probability for the three other winners is indicative of a small error. Second, you want the predictions to be well calibrated. The top nominee in each category averaged 86.5% likelihood of victory. Thus, multiplied out over 24 categories we expected to pick the winner 20.76 categories. Winning 21 out of 24 means that our predictions were perfectly calibrated. If we picked any more categories we should have had higher probabilities of victory (i.e., if you get 24 out of 24, you should have 100% likelihood for the winner in each of the categories) and if we picked any less we should have had lower probabilities.
12:00 AM ET: 21 for 24.
11:54 PM ET: With the leading actress and actor categories we are up to 20 out of 23 with just the picture award left.
11:40 PM ET: 12 Years a Slave is now 7 percentage points more likely to win Picture since start of the show. Currenly 18 for 21 with 3 awards left!
11:30 PM ET: Excited about original screenplay … that was the tightest of all of he categories! Now we are 17 for 20 with 4 awards left!
11:19 PM ET: Got the two music categories right; Gravity for score and Let it Go for song … now 15 for 18 and breathing a little easier … 6 more awards to go!
10:48 PM ET: Now 13 for 16, perfect in the technical categories … getting stoked for the big awards!
10:37 PM ET: Now 12 for 15 … just one more of the less prominent categories and then the big ones!
10:11 PM ET: Up to 9 for 12 after Gravity's double win in sound mixing and editing.
9:40 PM ET: Rough patch, now 6 for 9. 1 for 3 on short films.
9:29 PM ET: Now 5 for 6. Missed on Animated Short Film with surprise win by Mr. Hublot, but big wins with Frozen for Animated Feature Film and Gravity for Visual Effects.
9:02 PM ET: Two less prominent categories go our way, another Oscar for Dallas Buyers Club in Makeup and Hairstyling and an Oscar for The Great Gatsby in Costume Design.
8:43 PM ET: They started with a pretty secure category, best supporting actor … stoked to start out 1 for 1 though … phew!
8:20 PM ET: I am on the couch, I got a couple of beers, and I am looking forward to a fun Oscar night. I will update live here all night long, so stay tuned!