David M Rothschild on Posted on

PredictWise’s market-based forecasts have Donald Trump 89% to be the Republican nominee for president of the United States of America, Hillary Clinton is 98% to be the Democratic nominee for president of the United States of America, and the Democratic nominee for president is 71% to win the general election. This is a big upward swing over the last week for Trump, who was in the mid-70’s as voting started up and down the Northeast corridor on Tuesday, April 26, and a consolidation of a commanding lead by Clinton.

Trump had a strong week for two reasons. First, he won bigger than expected on Tuesday, April 26. The markets had him as about 40% to win all five contests at over 50%. He did that with a little space to spare! Second, major party leaders are finally coming around to the Trump nomination. The former Speaker of House John Boehner trashed Ted Cruz last week (calling him Lucifer in the flesh), but said he was comfortable voting for Trump.

Trump is heavily favored in Indiana; he is 87% to win on Tuesday, May 3. If he manages to win, he will be in great shape to reach 1,237 delegates; he is currently 84% to reach that position. He is 87% to win on the first ballot, with many unbound delegates coming his way.

PredictWise20160501a

Vertical Lines: Major Election Days: Tuesday, April 19, Tuesday, April 26
Sources: Betfair, Hypermind, PredictIt, http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-republican-nomination/

Clinton is 98% to win the Democratic nomination.

PredictWise20160501b

Vertical Lines: Major Election Days: Tuesday, April 19, Tuesday, April 26
Sources: Betfair, Hypermind, PredictIt, http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-democratic-nomination/