David M Rothschild on Posted on

Clinton moved from 69% to 74% from the start of the debate until the end of the debate; that is a solid movement. She exceeded expectations and the market anticipate the polls will reflect this over the next few days. The goal of the debates is not to move people from Trump to Clinton or Clinton to Trump. But, to move third party voters to main party candidate, and people who are undecided on the candidates and/or voting into their camps. It is expected that Clinton gained some consolidation of third party voters with Democratic leaning demographics and, possibly, potential non-voters with Democratic leanings (i.e., consolidated Obama voters that may vote third party or not vote).

Markets data not only moved the topline prediction, but the state-by-state elections moved as well.

There are 197 Electoral Votes in the “strong” Clinton camp (i.e., 95% or higher). That means the 76 Electoral Votes in the “lean hard” Clinton camp (i.e., 80-94%) would put her over the top. This group moved upwards an average of 4 pp.

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There an additional 74 Electoral Votes in the “toss-up” camp (i.e., 20-80). These also moved towards Clinton an average of 4 pp. But, Iowa, looking more and more lost to Clinton did not budge. Excluding Iowa the market-base predictions moved an average of 6 pp. If Clinton wins any of these states, she is most likely to win the election.

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This movement is comforting that the topline and state-by-state are in reasonable concert. These states are very correlated, but also have some separation. Iowa did not move and Ohio moved 9 pp.