David M Rothschild on Posted on

11:15 PM ET: Clinton 73% #President (45% OH, 54% NC, 61% NV, 62% FL, 82% CO, 85% PA). Up 4 pp nationally & up in all swing states

10:35 PM ET: Upward jump for Clinton likely to be one of largest non-Election Day movement in prediction market prices in last few cycles @PredictWise

10:25 PM ET: Did no one in the Trump camp advise him about fact-checking? How did he think he could continue Birther, Iraq lies?

10:15 PM ET: Again, Trump’s plan to take the oil would be both really hard to “take” and a war crime.

10:00 PM ET: I know I am not target audience, but is constantly interrupting Clinton playing well with any undecided or persuadable third party voters?

9:53 PM ET: Markets are about 2 pp up for Clinton since start of the debate

9:50 PM ET: Clinton is for gun control (very popular) and Trump is for taking guns away … wow!

9:49 PM ET: (from Sharad Goel) Counter to Trump’s claims, stop-and-frisk did not work “incredibly well” in New York City: https://medium.com/soal-food/stop-and-frisk-did-not-work-incredibly-well-a776f0210089#.3wu1q2851

9:35 PM ET: I am not sure how Trump’s audit was going, but I assume the recent information on the Trump Foundation is not helping.

9:25 PM ET: Raising taxes on income over $250,000 is wildly popular.

9:04 PM ET: But, vast majority of voters have made up their mind already. Unsure voters/persuadable small-party voters are maybe 5-10 percent of voters.

9:03 PM ET: To put 100 million viewers into perspective: 125 million voted in 2012 out about about 215 million eligible voters.

8:45 PM ET: It is like the Super Bowl, but the winner gets the nuclear codes, negotiates trade deals, and nominates Supreme Court justices.

8:40 PM ET: Polls will come back over the next few days, but markets will react to debate in real time. Currently 69% for Clinton / 31% for Trump.

8:35 PM ET: Why debate over state of race important. Clinton enters debate w/ small, but meaningful lead. Trump needs to win, Clinton needs to draw/win.

8:30 PM ET: at my desk, getting ready for the big event.

6:00 PM ET: Pre-Debate: Clinton 69% #President / If wins any, wins EC: 39% OH, 42% NC, 56% NV, 58% FL / If wins all, wins EC: CO 78%, PA 82%, WI 83%

4:30 PM ET: Going into debate: PredictWise 69% for Clinton, NYT 69% for Clinton, PEC 79% for Clinton, and 538 54% for Clinton. Pollster (2-way/4-way): +3.1+/+1.6 for Clinton and Real Clear Politics (2-way/4-way): +2.3/+1.6

4:15 PM ET: I will use this blog post to cover tonight’s debate. I will also be on Twitter. I will update both, but more likely Twitter first. Please use the comment section to ask questions. Will be here full time starting at 8:45 PM ET.