David M Rothschild on Posted on

Since January we have been asking voters about the flow of immigrants coming to this country. Most voters want to decrease the flow of immigrants. I talked earlier today about Trump/Republicans being out of step with their position on income taxes (most people want to increase taxes for high income). But, when it comes to immigration, Trump is breaking from the elites in both parties and, it is a popular move.

This polling data is work we are doing with Pollfish and innovative mobile application. The data is run through MRP, a process that models and post-stratifies the data to the likely voter space. And, even if you do not trust our methodology, which you should, you should be comforted by the fact that the answers to this question are incredibly stable of 40 waves.

Nationally 52 percent want to decrease flow with just 13 percent increasing it. A majority of Women and Men agree with decreasing the flow of immigrants, as due people of all education levels. But, while a majority of 45-54 and >54 year olds want to decrease flow, a majority of 18-24 year olds (and near majority of 25-34) want to keep immigration steady. Similarly, while a majority of white voters want to decrease the flow, a near majority of Black, Hispanic, and other races want to keep the flow steady.

No major demographic groups want to increase immigration flow. The largest support comes form young minorities and that tops out at 28%, with a majority supporting no change.


Further Detail: Here is the full data: ImmigrantData. We asked the questions to 1,000 US voters, every week for the last year (40 waves total). We use a regression with post-stratification to the US voting population. The regression coefficients are trained on all data, but updated by wave to reflect changes over time and, ultimately, reflect the public opinion on the final day. In this case that is September 27, 2016.