David M Rothschild on Posted on

Since January we have been tracking a question about raising taxes on high income: “How do you feel about increasing income taxes for people making over $250,000 per year?” We provide a seven point scale that runs from: very strongly favor, strongly favor, weakly favor, neither favor nor oppose, weakly oppose, strongly oppose,  very strongly oppose. Donald Trump is engaging the Republican elites on foreign policy (away from the interventionist policies of George W. Bush) and domestic social policy (at least on LGBT rights, but his running mate Mike Pence would disagree), there is one type of policy that unifies all of the Republican elite: massive tax cuts for high income. This policy position is wildly unpopular with everyone: Democrats/Republicans, Women/Men, Young/Old, etc.

This polling data is work we are doing with Pollfish and innovative mobile application. The data is run through MRP, a process that models and post-stratifies the data to the likely voter space. And, even if you do not trust our methodology, which you should, you should be comforted by the fact that the answers to this question are incredibly stable of 40 waves.

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Notice that the y-axis starts at 50%. Republicans are less encouraging of tax increases than Democrats, but still over 50 percent strongly or very strongly favor tax increases. Oddly, younger people are the least supportive age group. It could be because people tend to be aspirational with their public policy positions, and many of these voters have yet to enter the workforce.

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State-by-state. Not one state is below 50 percent.

Addendum: Here is the full data: IncomeData. We asked the questions to 1,000 US voters, every week for the last year (40 waves total). We use a regression with post-stratification to the US voting population. The regression coefficients are trained on all data, but updated by wave to reflect changes over time and, ultimately, reflect the public opinion on the final day. In this case that is September 27, 2016.