David M Rothschild on Posted on

Clinton is 87 percent to be the next president, with Trump at 13 percent. Democrats are now 71 percent to take the Senate and 11 percent to take the House. Below is the joint probability of the different parties controlling the president, senate, and house:

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I did a video and blog post on the Comey/FBI scandal early today. Clinton is up 5-7 points nationally in the polls and 5+ points in 272 Electoral Votes; prediction markets give her an 87 percent to win. Clinton is far enough up, and there are few enough persuadable voters, that she will need to lose support for Trump to win (not just Trump gain support). Almost no one will switch between Clinton and Trump, but some people could switch to non-voters or third party candidates. This will not likely be enough, which is why we are still at 87 percent for Clinton.

1) Strong Clinton: Clinton is 92 percent or more to win the states that add up to 272 Electoral Votes (she needs 270 to win). This has held relatively stable between 92-94 percent as the low point.

2) “Toss-Up”: There are six states that Trump needs to run, which are all leaning Clinton: Nevada 76%, North Carolina 75%, Florida 69%, Ohio 39%, Iowa 37%, Arizona 35% (if Clinton wins any of these states, she will win). Maine-2 and Nebraska-2 are both worth one electoral vote and both toss-ups. This has been the real impact point, in that these states are small enough leads that a possible 1-2 point shift could help Trump.

3) Lean Trump: She has a serious shot in one further state: Georgia 16% (if she wins Georgia, it is a landslide).

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Clinton continues to look strong in the Huffington Post’s Pollster (Pollster) and RealClearPolitics (RCP) rolling averages for the strong Clinton states. The national polls are continuing to show a solid lead for Clinton. She is up 4.6 percent in RCP and and 7.0 percent in Pollster.

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In the senate I am following seven races very closely. The Democrats are down four seats and will almost certainly win in Wisconsin and Illinois. They are only defending one tight seat in Nevada, holding steady 62%. The remaining six are possible pick-ups for the Democrats.

1) Lean Democratic: Democrats are looking good in Indiana 69%, New Hampshire 54%, and Pennsylvania 62%. If all of these go Democratic (and they hold Nevada) they will have 51 seats. The most likely, as of right now, they win 2 of 3 and we are 50-50 in the senate!

2) “Toss-Up”: Missouri is 40% and North Carolina 32%. If these also go Democratic they would be up to 53 seats. The same polls that showed the tight presidential race also swung well for the Republican incumbent in the senate race.

3) Lean Republican: Florida, Marco Rubio’s seat is at 14% for the Democratic challenger.