David M Rothschild on Posted on

Clinton is 90 percent to be the next president, with Trump at 10 percent. Democrats are now 78 percent to take the Senate and 18 percent to take the House. Below is the joint probability of the different parties controlling the president, senate, and house:

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The IBD poll that got everyone’s attention on Sunday for being Trump +2 at 43-41 slipped back to Even 41-41. The poll has a oddly high quantity of Republicans in its raw results. Even though they weight the sample, it is not clear that weights could correct for a Republican-leaning sample.

Polling was steady again today with nothing really grabbing my attention besides the two Nevada polls at Clinton +7 and +4. What we are seeing is the race extremely flat with just the slightest of tightening in the polls. This is illustrated with North Carolina polls at +3 and +1 for Clinton and a new CNN national poll at +5.

1) Strong Clinton: Clinton is 92 percent or more to win the states that add up to over 270 Electoral Votes (she needs 270 to win).

2) “Toss-Up”: There are six states that Trump needs to run, which are all leaning Clinton: Florida 81%, Nevada 87%, North Carolina 76%, Ohio 60%, Iowa 52%, Arizona 52% (if Clinton wins any of these states, she will win).

3) Lean Trump: She has a serious shot in one further state: Georgia 22% (if she wins Georgia, it is a landslide).

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Clinton continues to look strong in the Huffington Post’s Pollster (Pollster) and RealClearPolitics (RCP) rolling averages for the strong Clinton states. There really is not a major weak link anymore. And, Florida is really starting to look like a solid Clinton state. The national polls are continuing to show a solid lead for Clinton. She is up 5.5 percent in RCP and and 7.3 percent in Pollster.

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In the senate I am following seven races very closely. The Democrats are down four seats and will almost certainly win in Wisconsin and Illinois. They are only defending one tight seat in Nevada, which is up to 71%. The remaining six are possible pick-ups for the Democrats.

1) Lean Democratic: Democrats are looking good in Indiana 67%, New Hampshire 65%, and Pennsylvania 61%. If all of these go Democratic (and they hold Nevada) they will have 51 seats.

2) “Toss-Up”: Missouri is 47% and North Carolina 40%. If these also go Democratic they would be up to 53 seats. The same polls that showed the tight presidential race also swung well for the Republican incumbent in the senate race.

3) Lean Republican: Florida, Marco Rubio’s seat is at 21% for the Democratic challenger.