David M Rothschild on Posted on

Clinton is 91 percent likely to win the election over Donald Trump. The forecast moved up 1 percentage point during the debate for Clinton. (1) Talking point tomorrow is going to be Trump not agreeing to accept the results of the election. This is a serious issue not only if he loses, but if he wins. What happens in four years if he is president and refuses to accept that he loses then? This talking points, alienating mainstream Republicans, does not help Trump at all. (2) Trump needed a big victory in the last set piece of the election. He had to prove to be presidential, debate policy, and get a scandal to stick to Clinton. He did better than the previous debates, but certainly did not accomplish all of that. (3) Without any more set pieces, expect the forecast to gradually drift upward for Clinton if nothing happens and polls continue to validate a strong Clinton lead. (4) Basically the only way Clinton loses now is if the polls are catastrophically wrong. With Clinton’s strong GOTV advantage, it is unlikely that there are enough “shy Trump voters” to overcome this deficit (if there really are any).

PredictWise20161020b

1) Strong Clinton: She is 94 percent or more to win the states that add up to over 270 Electoral Votes (she needs 270 to win). The loosest of these states are Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Colorado (pretty much the same states since June!).

2) “Toss-Up”: There are five states that Trump needs to run, which are all leaning Clinton: Florida 85%, Nevada 83%, North Carolina 81%, Ohio 69%, and Iowa 56% (if Clinton wins any of these states, she will win).

3) Lean Trump: She has a serious shot in two states that are generally safe Republican: Arizona 48% and Georgia 26% (if she wins any of these states, she will win big).

All of these prediction numbers reflect the impact of the debate tonight, which was a minor upward shift for Clinton. Of course, the polling numbers will not move for at least a few days.

PredictWise20161020a

Clinton continues to look strong in the Huffington Post’s Pollster (Pollster) and RealClearPolitics (RCP) rolling averages for the strong Clinton states. There really is not a major weak link anymore, now that the New Hampshire numbers have moved forward. The national polls are continuing to show a solid lead for Clinton. She is up 6.2 percent in RCP and and 8.2 percent in Pollster.

PredictWise updates every 2-3 minutes.

Note: This update goes out between 9:00 PM and 11:59 ET each night through election eve …