David M Rothschild on Posted on

Clinton is 85 percent to be the next president, with Trump at 15 percent. Democrats are now 71 percent to take the Senate and 6 percent to take the House. Below is the joint probability of the different parties controlling the president, senate, and house:

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1) Strong Clinton: Clinton >= 95% for 239 Electoral Votes. Michigan is not that close. Clinton doing well in polls and early voting is solid in Colorado for 9 EV at 91% and poling is stable in Pennsylvania 90%. Keeping a keen eye on the SEPTA transit strike in Philadelphia. Judge says will consider forcing working back on duty on Monday if no deal is made over weekend. Those two states bring Clinton to 268. Nevada early voting looks great for Clinton while the polls are about tied giving Clinton 86%. If Nevada fails still 77% under mixed polling in New Hampshire.

2) Lean Clinton: Trump needs all of these states and one more. North Carolina is 67% and Florida at 70%. Polling and early voting looking good in North Carolina and polling looking good in Florida with decent early voting.

3) Lean Trump: Iowa, Ohio, and Arizona all lean Trump. He would need to sweep these as well! Early voting has been good for Trump in Ohio, but is starting to look more average.

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Clinton continues to look strong in the Huffington Post’s Pollster (Pollster) and OK RealClearPolitics (RCP) rolling averages for the strong Clinton states. She is down to 1.6 percent in RCP and and holding at 6.1 percent in Pollster.

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In the senate I am following seven races very closely. The Democrats are down four seats and will almost certainly win in Wisconsin (well pretty certain) and Illinois. They are only defending one tight seat in Nevada, holding steady 70%. The remaining six are possible pick-ups for the Democrats.

1) Lean Democratic: Democrats great in Pennsylvania 79%. If all of this goes Democratic (and they hold Nevada) they will have 49 seats.

2) “Toss-Up”: Indiana 51%, New Hampshire 54%, Missouri is 32%, and North Carolina 37%. If these also go Democratic they would be up to 53 seats.

3) Lean Republican: Florida, Marco Rubio’s seat is down to 12% for the Democratic challenger.