David M Rothschild on Posted on

In latest PredictWise/Pollfish Poll the vast majority of American voters support same-sex marriage, but there are some real concerns about its survival under a Republican Supreme Court. Further, the country is very divided over whether private companies should have the right to opt-out of work for same-sex weddings.

Should same-sex couple be allowed to marry? 56 percent of American voters with 73 percent of Clinton voters and 39 percent of Trump voters support same-sex marriage. This seems like a strong position same-sex marriage among the voters. But, ultimately, same-sex marriage is legal in all 50 states due to the Supreme Court which will be, at least, 5 Republicans and 4 Democrats before the end of Trump’s first term.

Do you expect same sex marriage to still be legal in all 50 states by end of Trump’s first term? 48 percent of voters think yes and 42 percent think no. Trump voters are more optimistic at 51 percent and Clinton voters more pessimistic at 43. Trump has declared this issue settled, but many people think it may be difficult for him to find a Republican Supreme Court justice who shares that view.

FigureM1

Voters support same-sex marriage, but worry Supreme Court will limit it.

The Supreme Court will likely be dealing with another issue as well: should companies be able to selectively deny services to groups people? In a way this was settled decades ago when both the Court and Congress made it illegal to deny people services based on race, but the issue is being revived with same-sax couples.

Should private companies have the right to deny services for an interracial wedding? Only 25 percent of voters believe so, but that number jumps to 34 percent of Trump voters.

Should private companies have the right to deny services for a same-sex wedding? This is split with 47 percent for and 46 percent against. Clinton voters are just 31 percent for, but Trump voters, are 63 percent for the right to deny services for same-sex weddings.

FigureM2

Voters evenly split of support for laws allowing private companies to deny services to same-sex couples.

Full Data Here.

Tobias Konitzer is a PhD candidate in communication at Stanford University. Find him on Twitter @KonitzerTobias.

Sam Corbett-Davies is a PhD candidate at Stanford University in computer science. Find him on Twitter @scorbettdavies.

David Rothschild is an economist at Microsoft Research. Find him on Twitter @DavMicRot.