David M Rothschild on Posted on

OK – make that 17 for 24 … just as predicted!

18 for 24. Not bad. Had me worried, but data worked out. Off to bed!

Oscar_Final

One left! Now 17 of 23. Expected 17 with initial probabilities pretty low this year, but hoping to round up to 18. Would be a great comeback for the markets tonight …

Wow, rough start. Normally, market dominates the technical categories, but this year it was a blood-bath (just 3 of 8!). But, fortunately, things came together with the other categories and brought PredictWise to a respectable 16 of 22 with just 2 left.

Oscar_Mid3

Pre-Oscar predictions. These are historically about 20 of 24, but lower than normal probabilities on top candidate this year. Expecting 17, with average leading choice just 70 percent likely.

Oscar_Pre