David M Rothschild on Posted on

Americans state that they support the concept of the Republican and Trump economic policies on cutting taxes and regulations, but they do not actually support cutting taxes and regulations. They are overwhelmingly opposed to cutting corporate income tax and overwhelmingly favor tax increase for higher income. Further there is strong support for maintaining both financial and environmental regulations.

Poll was run by PredictWise with Pollfish on March 6, 2017

A majority of Americans, 50 to 40 percent, favor the “Trump/Republican economic policies”. A plurality specifically support the “Trump/Republican tax plan” and the “Trump/Republican plan to roll back government regulations for businesses”. But, they do not the support the components that make up that policy moniker.

On taxes, there is no support for tax cuts for high income. “How do you feel about increasing income taxes on household income over $250,000 per year?” 66 percent support this, with roughly equal support from Democrats and Republicans. “How do you feel about lowering corporate income tax?” 55 percent oppose this, including 63 percent of Democrats and healthy 41 percent of Republicans.

Figure1_Taxes_20170306

On regulations, there is no support for actually cutting key regulations of the environment and finance. “How do you feel about rolling back environmental regulations on drilling for natural resources?” 50 percent oppose, including 72 percent of Democrats and 24 percent of Republicans. “How do you feel about Consumer Financial Protection Bureau maintaining its enforcement power over big banks?” 58 percent favor with just 19 percent opposed. “How do you feel about eliminating Dodd-Frank (financial regulations enacted after the financial crisis 2007-8)?” only 28 percent favor with 37 percent opposed (a lot of do not know).

Figure2_Regulations_20170306

Republicans are much better at messaging than the Democrats in that their headline concepts are popular, even when their components are not. Despite the written policies being very clear, only 18 percent of GOP thinks the rich will get larger tax cuts under President Trump and Republican Congress, while 53 percent of Democrats believe they will.

Figure3_ExpectTaxes_20170306

Full Data Here at PredictWise.com.

The PredictWise and Pollfish survey received responses from 1,200 people on March 6, 2017 through online and in-app polling methods. We do not report margin of error because we do not believe it can be accurately estimated.

Tobias Konitzer is a PhD candidate in communication at Stanford University. Find him on Twitter @KonitzerTobias.
Sam Corbett-Davies is a PhD candidate at Stanford University in computer science. Find him on Twitter @scorbettdavies.
David Rothschild is an economist at Microsoft Research. Find him on Twitter @DavMicRot.