David M Rothschild on Posted on

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A good chunk of Americans believe that President Trump either does not finish his first term or will not be the Republican nominee in 2020. And, almost every other American would prefer Vice-President Mike Pence to be president instead right now. But, while an insane quarter of Americans profess to talk politics daily or more with friends and family, half still do not talk much at all.

Poll was run by PredictWise with Pollfish on March 6, 2017

Donald Trump has been in office for less than two months, but a sizable fraction of his Americans believe he either does not serve out his first term, or will not be the Republican candidate in 2020. 57 percent of Americans (31 percent of Democrats and 88 percent of Republicans) think Trump, definitely or probably, will serve out his first term. Conditional on finishing his term, he still may not run or get the nomination. Less than half of Americans, 47 percent, think he will be the Republican nominee in 2020. That includes just 72 percent of Republicans.

Figure1_Trump2020_20170306

Americans would not be too upset about a one-term or less-than-one-term president. When asked whether they would prefer Vice President Mike Pence to be in the oval office right now instead of Trump, more than 44 percent of Americans said they prefer Pence. The partisan breakdown here: Among Republicans, that number is at 18 percent. One fifth Republican prefers President Trump’s number two to be in charge. If we are to believe public opinion or betting markets, there is a pretty good chance that this wish might come to its fruition before November 3, 2020.

Figure2_PresPence_20170306

But the picture of hyper-political Americans might be misleading. Most Americans do not routinely talk about politics. When asked “How often will you talk politics with your friends and family in the next month?”, 48 percent indicate they talk about politics just once or twice per month or less. But, 24 percent say daily or multiple times a day, which is very high at what should be a low point in political discourse.

Figure3_TalkingPolitics_20170306

Full Data Here at PredictWise.com.

The PredictWise and Pollfish survey received responses from 1,200 people on March 6, 2017 through online and in-app polling methods. We do not report margin of error because we do not believe it can be accurately estimated.

Tobias Konitzer is a PhD candidate in communication at Stanford University. Find him on Twitter @KonitzerTobias.
Sam Corbett-Davies is a PhD candidate at Stanford University in computer science. Find him on Twitter @scorbettdavies.
David Rothschild is an economist at Microsoft Research. Find him on Twitter @DavMicRot.