David M Rothschild on Posted on

Two key issues for 2017 are healthcare and taxes. What do people want and what do they know?

Poll was run by PredictWise with Pollfish on May 1, 2017.

The people want more healthcare coverage, but many know that Trump/GOP is offering them less. 51 percent of Democrats and 26 percent of Republicans know that coverage would go down if the GOP/TrumpCare bill becomes law. But, the CBO is estimating 24+ million more uninsured and the other way to look at this is that 74 percent of Republicans and 49 percent of Democrats are either unsure, think coverage will be stable, or actually increase!

Figure1_HealthcarePopular_20170501

People want higher taxes for income over $250,000, and they are blissfully unaware that Trump’s (admittely incomplete) tax plan would likely give almost all the benefit to incomes $250,000 or higher. It is possible that 95+ percent could go to households with income over $250,000. Yet, just 22 percent answered that over 50% of tax cut would go income over $250,000. Somehow, 45 percent of Democrats think that more than half the tax cut would go to households with income under $250,000.

Figure2_TaxCuts_20170501

Full Data Here at PredictWise.com.

The PredictWise and Pollfish survey received responses from 1,200 people on May 1 through online and in-app polling methods. We do not report margin of error because we do not believe it can be accurately estimated.

Tobias Konitzer is a PhD candidate in communication at Stanford University. Find him on Twitter @KonitzerTobias.
Sam Corbett-Davies is a PhD candidate at Stanford University in computer science. Find him on Twitter @SCorbettDavies.
David Rothschild is an economist at Microsoft Research. Find him on Twitter @DavMicRot.