David M Rothschild on Posted on

Faith in the US system is low.

Poll was run by PredictWise with Pollfish on June 15, 2017.

1) There is widespread belief in vote fraud (not real) and generally increasing belief in voter suppression (real). Only 50 percent of Americans think the 2020 election will be “free and fair”. This is unchanged from March.

Figure1

2) People are much more convinced there is voter fraud, than they are that any of the possible mechanisms of voter fraud exist. Notice that 68 percent of Democrats believe voter fraud is a problem, but just 32 percent think undocumented immigrants vote in large numbers, 35 percent think people voted with registrations of dead. 48 percent do believe in double voting. I wrote a paper debunking it.

Figure2

3) Voter suppression is more mixed, but still well above water with 58 percent believing it. This is a true phenomena and long lines are probably the biggest problem. 53 percent acknowledge that, more than other option.

Figure3

60 percent support a special prosecutor to investigate voter fraud, which bodes well for Kris Kobach’s team. 63 percent support a special prosecutor to investigate Clinton’s email server (which was already investigated and exonerated).

Figure4

Good support for Mueller.

Figure5

Republicans are most supportive of Mueller over the Russia angle, but still 30 percentage points more likely to support a special prosecutor for Clinton.

Figure6

 

Full Data Here at PredictWise.com.

The PredictWise and Pollfish survey received responses from 1,200 people on June 15 through online and in-app polling methods. We do not report margin of error because we do not believe it can be accurately estimated.

Tobias Konitzer is a PhD candidate in communication at Stanford University. Find him on Twitter @KonitzerTobias.
Sam Corbett-Davies is a PhD candidate at Stanford University in computer science. Find him on Twitter @SCorbettDavies.
David Rothschild is an economist at Microsoft Research. Find him on Twitter @DavMicRot.