David M Rothschild on Posted on

Labour surged 9 pp on Conservatives from May 15 to June 2, and gave back 4 pp from June 2 to June 6. The UK votes in districts, not by proportion, so we cannot make a prediction of the final control of parliament, but Labour has certainly closed a large popular vote gap (we have them with a small lead). But, Labour lost some momentum versus Conservatives in wake of the recent terrorist attack in London.

Polls were run by PredictWise with Pollfish in the United Kingdom: May 15, June 2, and June 6, 2017.

Our retrospective vote share for Brexit was both stable and relatively accurate in these polls; leave defeated remain by 3.5 pp in June of 2016, and leave is up by 6 pp in our polls. When we ask people how they would vote, if the Brexit vote was held again, remain picks up between 6 and 10 pp from the “did not vote” crowd. This would likely lead to a small remain victory. Further, when asked if they prefer a “soft exit” or “hard exit”, soft exit wins by between 8 and 10 pp. A soft exit means closer ties to Europe, rather than a clear or hard break. Views on Brexit did not change from before to after Saturday night’s terrorist attack.

Prime Minster May refused to join the leaders of France, Germany, and Italy in condemning US President Trump taking the US out of the Paris Accords; this was a very odd choice with about 68 percent support of the UK remaining in the Paris Climate Agreement. Just 9 percent wish to leave the agreement. This is part of reason that Labour was on a roll heading into the last weekend before Thursday’s election.

Prime Minister May was forced to address President Trump again a few days later after he attacked the Mayor of London during and after the terrorist attack there on Saturday; she provided a tepid condemnation of the President’s attack, after pressed for nearly 24 hours.  We show a significant increase in Trump’s job as US President after terrorist attack, we polled 25 percent approval, versus 17 before the attack. Similarly, when asked if “On international issues, should the UK Prime Minister work more with European leaders (Macron-FR, Merkel-DE, etc.), or USA’s Trump?” we got 17 percent before the attack and 22 percent after the attack for Trump. So, there is certainty a few percent increased support for Trump in UK after the attack, but still very low.

Could sentiment towards are a more hardline approach to terrorism help the Conservatives in the election; while there are some hints it could be possible, others are more neutral on the topic. While 24 percent of people state that “national security” is the most important policy space for UK, voter are evenly split on whether Conservatives or Labour have the “most effective anti-terrorism policy”.

Conservatives are still very likely to hold onto the majority of the seats, but Labour is likely be very close in the overall popular vote.

Full Data Here at PredictWise.com.

The PredictWise and Pollfish survey received responses from 1,000 people on May 15, June 2, and June 6, 2017 through online and in-app polling methods. We do not report margin of error because we do not believe it can be accurately estimated.

Tobias Konitzer is a PhD candidate in communication at Stanford University. Find him on Twitter @KonitzerTobias.
Sam Corbett-Davies is a PhD candidate at Stanford University in computer science. Find him on Twitter @SCorbettDavies.
David Rothschild is an economist at Microsoft Research. Find him on Twitter @DavMicRot.