David M Rothschild on Posted on

Back in July we did some early polling of the New Jersey election. We showed that our polling matched the Quinnipiac polling very tightly, where we overlapped. Again, our approval polling (Booker +31 net approval, Christie -32, and Trump -33) is very much in-line with the traditional polling, our horse-race polling is a little more bullish for the Democrat (Democrat Murphy 71% of two-party vote, up by 28 percentage points not counting undecided). We have a large number of undecideds, so the Dem lead can shrink to a mere +10 ppt in the worst-case scenario. But, we are much more interested in what the Quinnipac poll does not ask:

Senator Booker has pushed legalization of marijuana as a signature progressive policy; this is very popular with New Jersey voters, if they only knew Booker was doing it. 65 percent support legalization of marijuana, only 27 percent are opposed. So, it was natural for us to ask: “Has any NJ politician been particularly involved in pushing for legalization of marijuana?” 9 percent said Booker, 7 percent said Governor Christie, 12 percent no one, and 55 percent do not know – not exactly great conditions for Democratic credit claiming.

In 2018 several New Jersey Republican Congressmen will be targeted, and healthcare will be a key topic; New Jersey voters are very supportive of expanded healthcare. We polled 57 percent support for the public healthcare option, and 72 percent support for universal healthcare (in the form of the “government providing Medicare or Medicaid to all Americans without private healthcare insurance”). But, just 45 percent know that the rate of uninsured Americans would go up  under President Trump’s and Republican’s ACA replacement bill. That is pretty good, but Democrats still have a long way to go if they expect voters to really know that Frelinghuysen and MacArthur played a major role in passing Trump/GOP’s plan in of the House of Representatives, and that it was a bad thing.

The generic ballot in the House in New Jersey is 75 percent of the two-party vote for the Democrats (up by 36 percentage points when we drop by the undecided). It is early and the generic ballot has its issues (mostly that it captures a noisy variant of party id), but that is a huge lead one year out. In all, this is good news for the Democrats out of New Jersey, both when it comes to the 2017 gubernatorial election, and the 2018 Congressional election.

Vote_NJ

NJ_Poll1_20171104 is done using MRP+ on Pollfish. In the field from 11/1 to 11/4/2017.