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David M Rothschild Posted on

11:15 PM ET: Clinton 73% #President (45% OH, 54% NC, 61% NV, 62% FL, 82% CO, 85% PA). Up 4 pp nationally & up in all swing states 10:35 PM ET: Upward jump for Clinton likely to be one of largest non-Election Day movement in prediction market prices in last few cycles @PredictWise 10:25 PM ET: Did no […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Last week I got into a little Twitter fight with Nat Silver. I tweeted that I am concerned about the FiveThirtyEight forecast, both how much volatility it has and how predictable the forecast is. Here is the picture I tweeted: He responded with this tweet: “Never seen otherwise-smart people in so much denial about something as they […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

If the election was a debate on public policy, the Democratic candidate would win. Democratic policy positions on the economy and social issues are much more popular across the country than the Republican policy positions. There is more of a split on foreign policy issues, but these have historically been less valuable to voters. But, […]

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Robert Nathenson Posted on

The extent to which Donald Trump has consolidated the Republican base is of large importance for the nominee’s general election chances this fall. Most paths to the Presidency for the Republican nominee require him to receive votes from an overwhelming majority of the Republican base, as well as to win over traditional blue-collar Democrats and […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

For the beginning of August, MSN has been running daily polls on its election 2016 page and I have been helping. We ask between 8 and 9 questions per day. Generally, that includes 4-5 issues of the day: some of them regularly occurring issues like support for gun control or immigration, and others germane to the day like concern […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

PredictWise started its state-by-state forecast in late February 2016, but prediction markets did not become fully liquid until late May. Prior to late May the forecasts were largely defined by our fundamental predictions of a generic Democratic nominee versus a generic Republican nominee. And, they were largely stable. You can see where the fundamental predictions […]

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Lance Fortnow Posted on

From a purely probabilistic point of view, would Hillary Clinton dropping out of the race improve the democrats chance of beating Donald Trump? (Spoiler: No) The prediction market site PredictIt has these four securities based on the outcome of the presidential election. Who will win the 2016 U.S. presidential election? Which party will win the […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

There have been rash of 50-state polls coming out recently: Survey Monkey (with the Washington Post), Ipsos (with Reuters), and Morning Consult all released polls within the week. For the sake of this article think of polling as a two-step process, researchers: collect responses from a sample of the population and analyze that data. There […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

On Tuesday voters across New York will go to the polls for their state-level primary elections. I live in the 65th Assembly District of New York. Until last year I was represented by Sheldon Silver, who had to leave office after being convicted of corruption. He chose Alice Cancel to take his spot and she […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

This page includes all historical maps going back to the first election. And, starting with the 1972 map, you can update the map yourself to see how your expectations of the 2016 election differ from the past and present. Click on PredictWise to reset to current PredictWise expectations. Click on bottom-right arrow to get the […]

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