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David M Rothschild Posted on

The raw data table on PredictWise shows a very clear gap opening up between Betfair and PredictIt for the winning party of the 2016 presidential election. Translating the Betfair data into dollar contracts, one can sell the Democratic nominee to be president for $0.699, while one can go onto PredictIt and buy that exact same […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Someone forwarded me this article by Ray Hennessy: The Problem With Polling, Surveys and Opinion Is That People Fib. The piece so (1) riddled with factual errors (2) over-the-top “business lessons” I thought it was a joke. My friend convinced me that the author was serious, so I am going to use it as foil […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

As we leave the realm of contested primary elections, let me take a quick look at how market-based predictions did in 2016. First, market-based predictions had full coverage, this is in sharp contrast to the poll-based forecasts that covered about 50-55 of the 80 or so contests. Second, market-based prediction started earlier. This is crucial […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

PredictWise officially switched the headline chart for the first time in over a year from the Republican nomination to the winner of the general election for president. A few thoughts on this shift in the election: (1) The Republican nomination is now over; Donald Trump is going to win. I am relieved that I  always […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

PredictWise’s market-based forecasts have Donald Trump 89% to be the Republican nominee for president of the United States of America, Hillary Clinton is 98% to be the Democratic nominee for president of the United States of America, and the Democratic nominee for president is 71% to win the general election. This is a big upward swing over the […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

PredictWise’s market-based predictions for the GOP race in Indiana have been very different than FiveThirtyEight’s poll (and endorsement)-based forecasts. PredictWise has given Donald Trump an increasingly large lead over any/all rivals since well before the New York primary on April 26. FiveThirtyEight gave a growing edge to Ted Cruz, until suddenly flipping today, Sunday May […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Donald Trump had a big night last night; as expected he swept the five states in the “Acela Primary”. What made the night special for Trump was two things. First, market-based forecasts had him at 40% to win all five state with 50% or more of the vote. So, Trump’s 58% in CT, 61% DE, […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Here is what I am following tonight. Will Donald Trump top 50% in all five primaries … As of 5:30 PM ET is 40% Yes and 60% No.  

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are looking very strong for April 26. The only question is how strong: Trump is almost certain to sweep all five states. The only question is how many delegates he ultimately picks up. Clinton is now favored in four of five states; she is 43% in Rhode Island. Otherwise, she […]

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Nick Warino Posted on

… The markets think Trump will win anyway. The Cruz and Kasich campaigns announced yesterday that they will collaborate to try to lower Trump’s odds at reaching a majority of pledged delegates and keep their respective campaigns alive. The deal makes sense. While Trump is in an enviable position, he cannot afford to lose very […]

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