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David M Rothschild Posted on

PredictWise’s market-based forecasts have Donald Trump 89% to be the Republican nominee for president of the United States of America, Hillary Clinton is 98% to be the Democratic nominee for president of the United States of America, and the Democratic nominee for president is 71% to win the general election. This is a big upward swing over the […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

PredictWise’s market-based predictions for the GOP race in Indiana have been very different than FiveThirtyEight’s poll (and endorsement)-based forecasts. PredictWise has given Donald Trump an increasingly large lead over any/all rivals since well before the New York primary on April 26. FiveThirtyEight gave a growing edge to Ted Cruz, until suddenly flipping today, Sunday May […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Donald Trump had a big night last night; as expected he swept the five states in the “Acela Primary”. What made the night special for Trump was two things. First, market-based forecasts had him at 40% to win all five state with 50% or more of the vote. So, Trump’s 58% in CT, 61% DE, […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Here is what I am following tonight. Will Donald Trump top 50% in all five primaries … As of 5:30 PM ET is 40% Yes and 60% No.  

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are looking very strong for April 26. The only question is how strong: Trump is almost certain to sweep all five states. The only question is how many delegates he ultimately picks up. Clinton is now favored in four of five states; she is 43% in Rhode Island. Otherwise, she […]

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Nick Warino Posted on

… The markets think Trump will win anyway. The Cruz and Kasich campaigns announced yesterday that they will collaborate to try to lower Trump’s odds at reaching a majority of pledged delegates and keep their respective campaigns alive. The deal makes sense. While Trump is in an enviable position, he cannot afford to lose very […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Ted Cruz has agreed to not campaign in Oregon and New Mexico, if John Kasich does not campaign in Indiana. This is the type of event that markets were made for. It is impossible to model the impact of this incredibly idiosyncratic event. But, markets can look at the alliance and figure out its meaning. […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

PredictWise’s market-based forecasts have Donald Trump 76% to be the Republican nominee for president of the United States of America, Hillary Clinton is 96% to be the Democratic nominee for president of the United States of America, and the Democratic nominee for president is 74% to win the general election. This is a big upward swing over the […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

There are a linty of reasons why you cannot just divide the probability of victory in the general election by the probability of victory in the primary and get the conditional probability of candidate winning the general elections on their nomination. First, these values are both imprecise. Second, things change conditional on nomination (i.e., there […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

PredictWise’s market-based forecasts midday on April 17, 2016: Donald Trump is 62% to be the Republican nominee for president of the United States of America, Hillary Clinton is 92% to be the Democratic nominee for president of the United States of America, and the Democratic nominee for president is 74% to win the general election. It […]

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