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David M Rothschild Posted on

This table will update every 5 minutes all night … 11:23 PM ET: Markets now at 98% for Clinton to (barely) carry IA 11:11 PM ET: Trump is still favored in NH for GOP, but Rubio & Cruz both up a little. Not much movement in NH on the DEM side; Sanders 85% to win NH. […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

A quick look at the Republican and Democratic nomination markets over the last two weeks heading into the first votes in Iowa. One thing is certain, both of these charts are going to see a lot of movement in about 24 hours. With neither Iowa Caucus certain, any outcome is going to affect the race […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

It is looking increasingly like Donald Trump will win the race for the non-establishment candidate and Marco Rubio is poised to seize the race for the establishment candidate (although there is still a lot more uncertainty there). This seems like a shocking turn of events over the last few days, unless, of course you have been […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

On December 1, 2015 PredictIt made a huge structural change that immediately made their exchange more efficient. Rajiv Sethi explained this problem really nicely on his blog. In short, many markets have more than two possible contracts (i.e., possible winners). An example is the winner of the Republican nomination where there are many possible winners. When […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

We are collaborating with Pollfish on some public opinion polling! Click here for the permanent home. Key findings this week: 1) This survey was 21 days after the last one and there was a meaningful increase in the amount of people taking the strong Republican position on average, but no noticeable change in the amount of people […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Donald Trump is dominating the Republican polls, both nationally and state-by-state, but is still under 50% to get the nomination. Hillary Clinton is dominating the national Democratic polls, but is in a tight state-by-state battle with Bernie Sanders; she is 81% to get the nomination. Why the difference? 1) Trump is 37% nationally to 17% […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

With the Iowa Caucuses fast approaching we saw a lot of movement this week on the Republican side. First, Donald Trump is starting to pull away from his primary rival Ted Cruz in the race for the non-establishment vote. Second, Marco Rubio had has his first good week in a while in his race to […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Michael Bloomberg announced that he may run. Currently he is trading at about 1-2% to be president; this value is unconditional, so would likely go up, should he run. I see how Michael Bloomberg could get upwards of 20% or more of the popular vote for president of the United States, but it is really […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

We are collaborating with Pollfish on some public opinion polling! Click here for the permanent home. Key findings this week: 1) The tide has certainly shifted on gay rights; protecting individuals on the basis of their sexual orientation is popular. But, less generally understood, the general voting population has very strong support, across the board, for […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

As the 2016 campaign (finally) enters the voting phase, pundits start asking (and answering) the question of who is the most electable in the general election. The reason is that it is rational for voters to vote strategically. Ultimately what a voter wants is to help elect the candidate that give them the most utility. […]

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