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David M Rothschild Posted on

There are robust markets on both PredictIt and Betfair on whether President Trump will be President of the United States at the end of 2017, 2018, 2019, and when his term expires on January 20, 2021 at 11:59 AM ET. I am tracking them on this page. These market as agnostic to the reasons Trump may […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Poll was run by PredictWise with Pollfish on July 20, 2017. The full dataset can be found here. The Paris Accord itself is not that well know and does not really resonate; but, voters really want the US to remain engaged. Democrats are opposed to leaving the Paris Accord and Republicans support it, but many do not know. That being said, […]

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Tobias Konitzer and David Rothschild Posted on

There is a lot of discussion on the value of “big data” in creating actionable market intelligence. Hedge funds buy up all sorts of big behavioral data sets to gauge the growth of consumer-facing companies. This is not new, decades ago they counted cars in parking lots, moved onto satellite images, then onto caches of digital footprints […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Quinnipiac does high-end random-digit dialing polling in New Jersey, which they make publicly available here. We thought New Jersey, with its 2017 election, would be an interesting place to track with our MRP+ methodology. We can do polling there at roughly 1/10 the cost and 1/3 the time of standard polling. Further, our methods, both […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

On March 23, 2010 President Barack Obama signed the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act into law. The law was mostly enacted by 2013; from 2013 to 2017 the rate of uninsured Americans fell from about 17 percent to 10 percent. The law also mandated a reasonably high level of coverage for any insurance plan. There […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Faith in the US system is low. Poll was run by PredictWise with Pollfish on June 15, 2017. 1) There is widespread belief in vote fraud (not real) and generally increasing belief in voter suppression (real). Only 50 percent of Americans think the 2020 election will be “free and fair”. This is unchanged from March. 2) […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Labour surged 9 pp on Conservatives from May 15 to June 2, and gave back 4 pp from June 2 to June 6. The UK votes in districts, not by proportion, so we cannot make a prediction of the final control of parliament, but Labour has certainly closed a large popular vote gap (we have them […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

I am very excited to continue to help analyze polling data for MSN on important topics of the day. MSN’s opt-in polling is very cost-effective and fast to run, and this column helps explain how it is also accurate. MSN runs polls on both its front-page (and some back-pages) and that data is collected by […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Democrats are wondering where to go after Trump on: appropriateness, competence, corruption, and work ethic. The answer is that people are evenly divided on these topics. Republicans support him and Democrats oppose him. Yet, there are some key points. Poll was run by PredictWise with Pollfish on May 22, 2017. 1) Biggest difference is on appropriateness, […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Poll was run by PredictWise with Pollfish on May 22, 2017. Americans trust some specific news, just not the mainstream media in general. A plurality of Republicans think that federal government employees should not be able to freely criticize the president. A majority think that legal immigrants should not have that right. Americans believe that […]

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