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David M Rothschild Posted on

Our state-of-the-art method uses machine learning to convert fast mobile-based polls into results that are at least as accurate as results from traditional landline polls. With smartphones reaching saturation in the US, our polls reach a broader audience in a shorter time and our high-quality panel is supplemented with a rich array of passive data […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

In the next few days President Trump is likely to revise his Immigration/Refugee/Travel Executive Order (EO), because the judiciary has halted it. Or, he could appeal to the Supreme Court, but either way, he will keep fighting for some form of a ban. The original EO did three things: banned immigration from seven predominately Muslim […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

On Wednesday, February 8, 2017, President Trump bragged on Twitter that the “Immigration Ban is One of Trump’s Most Popular Orders So Far”: 55 percent Approve, 38 percent Disapprove, and 8 percent Don’t Know/No Opinion. Of course, Trump cherry picked the most favorable poll for his Executive Order (EO); Huffington Post’s Pollster listed eight polls […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

PredictWise and Pollfish ran a poll in the afternoon of Thursday, February 2, to gauge public opinion on President Trump’s Friday, January 27 executive order (EO) on immigration and refugees. While considering how this order affects public opinion it is important to remember: (1) The real impact of this executive order is going to be […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

We ran a new PredictWise/Pollfish Poll on facts about politics on January 26, 2017 and found that Republican talking points are much more salient than Democratic talking points. This is not a story about partisan asymmetry around what people believe (although that exists), but about how Democrats also believe key false talking points from the […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

We ran a new PredictWise/Pollfish Poll on favorability of 12 entities: people, companies, and countries (date: January 23, 2017). All of these entities were singled out, in some way, by President Trump in the previous week or so. The effect of Trump in creating a partisan halo around brands is serious business. This is our […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

We ran a quick/fun PredictWise/Pollfish today on the Super Bowl next weekend: many more Americans will be rooting for Atlanta than New England, but they think New England is going to win. And, while both Trump and Clinton voters are united in leaning towards Atlanta, Atlanta has much stronger support from Trump voters. Most Americans […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

We ran a poll in the hours after the Inauguration and nothing in it will surprise you at all. But, it is amazing to see not just the divide in sentiment and expectation, but how Trump and Clinton voters live in a different reality. Trump voters think the economy got worse under Obama, while Clinton […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

This was originally posted on Medium and is written with Duncan Watts: The current state of public and political discourse is in disarray. Politicians lie with impunity. Traditional news organizations amplify fact-free assertions, while outright fake news stories circulate on social media. Public trust in the media, science, and expert opinion has fallen, while segregation […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

We ran a new PredictWise/Pollfish Poll on favorability of 11 entities: people, companies, and countries (date: January 14, 2017). All of these entities were singled out, in tweets, by President-elect Donald Trump in the previous few days. We do not know the baseline partisanship of the favorability of the entities prior to Trump’s engagement, but […]

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