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David M Rothschild Posted on

10:49 PM ET: Hillary Clinton 57% favorable at end of 2012. Was positive favorable until starting running again in 2015 @pollster pic.twitter.com/pyaa1hzCIi 10:42 PM ET: Bill Clinton “she voted for and against trade deals,” – managed to sneak that in about 2 seconds. 10:29 PM ET: Have heard dozens of speeches by the Clintons, and this […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

11:23 PM ET: biggest cheer of the night on appointing conservative justices #RNCinCLE 11:15 PM ET: Crowd is not really sure how to handle this linty of details on trade deals. 11:09 PM ET: So far plans include stopping immigration from countries where terrorism exists and building a wall. He will add in trade protectionism […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

10:35 PM ET: Trump left and the lights are up; but, Gingrich is just all over the place in this speech … really hard for crowd to get in it 10:12 PM ET: Countries are not businesses or households. Countries print money, have armies, etc. 10:10 PM ET: Very confusing to talk about cutting deficits […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

I will be talking at a program at Penn designed to coincide with DNC (WCAI_July2016_Event_Flyer_7). Specifically, I will talk with Eric Bradlow between 9:30-11 AM on Wednesday, July 27.

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Are prediction markets too stable, because people trust them too much and assume new information already baked in? I explore this in a post on Slate with Andrew Gelman.

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David M Rothschild Posted on

The state-by-state breakdown of the presidential election in 2016 varies a lot from the 2012 election; in 2012 Republican Mitt Romney needed to sweep Florida (FL), Ohio (OH), and Virginia (VA) to win the election, in 2016 Republican Donald Trump needs to win 3 of 4 from FL, OH, VA, and Pennsylvania (PA). The chart […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

This article is also on Huffington Post Throughout the campaign, since January, we have been and will be polling Americans on their policy preferences. We want to know: Which candidate’s platform is closest to the ideology of the American voters, Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump? Our weekly polling has tracked 11 issues, and we find […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Post is reproduced from Huffington Post … New polling after the British referendum shows that it’s not the leave voters who regret their choice – it’s those who stayed home. Despite media declarations of widespread regret from leave voters, only 5% would vote to remain if another referendum was held. Non-voters, however, do seem to […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

When considering the myriad of predictions before Brexit, when it comes to polling, financial markets, and prediction markets, there are certainly some bright spots and some concern: First, polling did pretty well, depending on what polls you cherry picked. The final Pollster numbers were 45.8 Remain and 45.3 Leave; the final votes were about 52% Leave and 48% […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Full article: Four keys for predicting whether Britain will leave the European Union

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