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David M Rothschild Posted on

Since January we have been tracking a question about raising taxes on high income: “How do you feel about increasing income taxes for people making over $250,000 per year?” We provide a seven point scale that runs from: very strongly favor, strongly favor, weakly favor, neither favor nor oppose, weakly oppose, strongly oppose,  very strongly […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

I am a huge fan of what the USC/LAT Panel is trying to do. The data from asking 3,000 people each week who they will vote (with probabilities!) is going to be amazing. But, if their level was an issue before (i.e., too many Republicans) their trajectory is going to be a problem now (i.e., […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Clinton moved from 69% to 74% from the start of the debate until the end of the debate; that is a solid movement. She exceeded expectations and the market anticipate the polls will reflect this over the next few days. The goal of the debates is not to move people from Trump to Clinton or […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

11:15 PM ET: Clinton 73% #President (45% OH, 54% NC, 61% NV, 62% FL, 82% CO, 85% PA). Up 4 pp nationally & up in all swing states 10:35 PM ET: Upward jump for Clinton likely to be one of largest non-Election Day movement in prediction market prices in last few cycles @PredictWise 10:25 PM ET: Did no […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Last week I got into a little Twitter fight with Nat Silver. I tweeted that I am concerned about the FiveThirtyEight forecast, both how much volatility it has and how predictable the forecast is. Here is the picture I tweeted: He responded with this tweet: “Never seen otherwise-smart people in so much denial about something as they […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

If the election was a debate on public policy, the Democratic candidate would win. Democratic policy positions on the economy and social issues are much more popular across the country than the Republican policy positions. There is more of a split on foreign policy issues, but these have historically been less valuable to voters. But, […]

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Robert Nathenson Posted on

The extent to which Donald Trump has consolidated the Republican base is of large importance for the nominee’s general election chances this fall. Most paths to the Presidency for the Republican nominee require him to receive votes from an overwhelming majority of the Republican base, as well as to win over traditional blue-collar Democrats and […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

For the beginning of August, MSN has been running daily polls on its election 2016 page and I have been helping. We ask between 8 and 9 questions per day. Generally, that includes 4-5 issues of the day: some of them regularly occurring issues like support for gun control or immigration, and others germane to the day like concern […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

PredictWise started its state-by-state forecast in late February 2016, but prediction markets did not become fully liquid until late May. Prior to late May the forecasts were largely defined by our fundamental predictions of a generic Democratic nominee versus a generic Republican nominee. And, they were largely stable. You can see where the fundamental predictions […]

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Lance Fortnow Posted on

From a purely probabilistic point of view, would Hillary Clinton dropping out of the race improve the democrats chance of beating Donald Trump? (Spoiler: No) The prediction market site PredictIt has these four securities based on the outcome of the presidential election. Who will win the 2016 U.S. presidential election? Which party will win the […]

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