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David M Rothschild Posted on

Clinton is 89 percent to be the next president, with Trump at 11 percent. Democrats are now 66 percent to take the Senate and 6 percent to take the House. Below is the joint probability of the different parties controlling the president, senate, and house: Honestly, pretty slow day today. A bunch of polls confirmed what I assumed […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Clinton is 89 percent to be the next president, with Trump at 11 percent. Democrats are now 68 percent to take the Senate and 6 percent to take the House. Below is the joint probability of the different parties controlling the president, senate, and house: Comey Letter II hit this afternoon clearing Hillary Clinton of any wrongdoing that […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Clinton is 86 percent to be the next president, with Trump at 14 percent. Democrats are now 69 percent to take the Senate and 6 percent to take the House. Below is the joint probability of the different parties controlling the president, senate, and house: Basically just read this post from earlier. 1) Strong Clinton: Clinton 95% for 239 […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

It is 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, November 5, 2016 and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton is 86 percent likely to be our next president (Republican nominee Donald Trump is 14 percent). Clinton is winning, because she is 90 percent or more to win states that equal 274 Electoral Votes, she is about 75 percent for […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Clinton is 85 percent to be the next president, with Trump at 15 percent. Democrats are now 71 percent to take the Senate and 6 percent to take the House. Below is the joint probability of the different parties controlling the president, senate, and house: 1) Strong Clinton: Clinton >= 95% for 239 Electoral Votes. Michigan is not that close. […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Clinton is 83 percent to be the next president, with Trump at 17 percent. Democrats are now 70 percent to take the Senate and 7 percent to take the House. Below is the joint probability of the different parties controlling the president, senate, and house: 1) Strong Clinton: Clinton >= 90 for 259 Electoral Votes with Pennsylvania at […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

The MSN reader poll shows Clinton leading by 5 percentage points with just five days until Election Day. I feel pretty good about that insofar as the trend and difference is similar to the aggregation of traditional polls. But, more interesting, we are using the poll to track sub-demographics. On the national level Trump moved up […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Clinton is 85 percent to be the next president, with Trump at 15 percent. Democrats are now 69 percent to take the Senate and 9 percent to take the House. Below is the joint probability of the different parties controlling the president, senate, and house: Polling was certainly interesting today, but since I frantically finishing this during […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Clinton is 84 percent to be the next president, with Trump at 16 percent. Democrats are now 70 percent to take the Senate and 9 percent to take the House. Below is the joint probability of the different parties controlling the president, senate, and house: Polling was certainly interesting today. Trump had a very wild +7 poll […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Clinton is 86 percent to be the next president, with Trump at 14 percent. Democrats are now 66 percent to take the Senate and 9 percent to take the House. Below is the joint probability of the different parties controlling the president, senate, and house: The Comey/FBI scandal continues to fester. It is possible, but unlikely that […]

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