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David M Rothschild Posted on

The Republicans have perfected the message around their economic policy: cut taxes and regulations. They avoid messy details like which taxes and regulations, because the components of their policy are just slightly more impracticable as they are unpopular. In short, people do not want giant tax cuts for rich people, and they do nothing to […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

There is a lot of ignorance and apathy around trade, but those people that care about it, consistently want to shut it down more than keep it going. Starting a trade war would be good short-term politics for Donald Trump. Even if it is terrible long-term economics for the United States (and the world). Frequently […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

On February 28, 2016 I released my fundamental model for the state-by-state presidential election. The model, using incumbency, presidential approval, economic indicators, and past voting had the Republican getting 292 Electoral Votes and the Democratic candidate 246. The final vote tally (assuming no stray electors) will be 306 to 232 … I (along with co-author […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Two key pillars of President-elect Donald Trump’s economic plans are lower taxes and regulations; these have been the twin pillars of the Republican economic policy for decades. While people sort of like the ideas, they are not enthusiastic of the what this actually means. This article relies on the results from the latest PredictWise/Pollfish Poll […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

The media narrative around the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, is badly misleading. If we were to believe that narrative, Obamacare is unpopular. This is true insofar as more people say they do not support it than support it. But, some people do not support it because it does not go far enough […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

As many of you know I have written in New York Times, Washington Post, Huffington Post, and Slate this election year. Moving forward I am going to post the first paragraph and a link to all extra-PredictWise articles as posts on PredictWise. There is no more unifying issue for the Republican elites than support for massive […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Prediction markets coverage towards a solid aggregation of polling as Election Day approaches. Early in the election cycle markets are all about idiosyncratic and dispersed knowledge of the campaign; polling is both thin and markets know a lot about what people will learn about candidates over the course of the election cycle. And, when news […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Together with Sam Corbett-Davies and Tobias Konitzer, I ran regular polling on a display poll on MSN. We used the data to discuss support of public policy and quick reactions to unfolding events. The idea was that in 2016 we would study the data collection and analytics to nurture new processes, answering pressing questions now, and then […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Together with Sam Corbett-Davies and Tobias Konitzer, I ran regular polling on mobile-based Pollfish. We used the data to discuss support of public policy and quick reactions to unfolding events. The idea was that in 2016 we would study the data collection and analytics to nurture new processes, answering pressing questions now, and then use them for […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

In 2016 I worked with two very different types of data sources: public and private. I used public polling and prediction markets data to predict the outcome of the 51 Electoral College (46 or 47 of 51), 34 Senatorial (31 or 32 of 34), 435 House (TBD), and 12 Gubernatorial elections (10 or 11 of 12). […]

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