Blog
David M Rothschild Posted on

Immediately in the aftermath of Saturday’s assassination attempt on Congresswoman Gifford, that resulted in the death of six people including a federal judge and a nine year old girl, the media began speculating on the political fallout to Sarah Palin’s 2012 Presidential aspirations. In March she had put out an advertisement with a target on Congresswoman Gifford and then told asked that her followers “Don’t Retreat, Instead – RELOAD!” Thus, after the massacre people began to discuss her contribution to both the specific target and the general heated atmosphere in politics; regardless of her complicity, and thus far there is no direct evidence the assassin followed Mrs. Palin, talk of it has political consequences. As several blogs have already noted, the market for her 2012 Republican nomination responded immediately … on Intrade. She lost over 1/3 of her probability in the immediate aftermath of the massacre. Yet, the movement a different market, Betfair, was much smaller, as it was already trading lower for Mrs. Palin; Betfair has consistently had less confidence in Mrs. Palin’s viability as the Republican nominee. The chart is below:

 

Continue Reading
David M Rothschild Posted on

The Senate votes today on the repeal of the “Don’t Ask Don’t Tell” law.  News of the vote caused PredictWise’s likelihood of repeal to skyrocket to 88%, implying that the controversial law is very likely to be over-turned today.

Continue Reading
David M Rothschild Posted on

When you think about 2012 Presidential nominations you are likely thinking about Palin, Romney, and the Republicans. But, as the year comes to close and the 111th Congress end on December 17th or so, I urge you keep an eye on the Democratic ticket. An editoral in today’s Washington Post urges a Democrat to run to the left of the President to force him to hold firm on taxes, war, and social issues. First, it would be difficult for Biden to do that from within the adminstration and Clinton is not that person, thus for this to happen it would have to be an outside option. We will make sure to add that person, and you will see it coming with Obama falling. Second, notice the discrepencies between Betfair and Intrade  on Hillary and Biden.

Continue Reading
David M Rothschild Posted on

The probability of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell being eliminated by the end of the year tanked to just above 10% after the Democratic defeat on Election Day. But, today brought good news to those trying for repeal, the Democrats are making a top priority in the lame duck session …

Continue Reading
David M Rothschild Posted on

Welcome to PredictWise!

This site is the outgrowth of my dissertation work in individual-level expectations, forecasts, and decision making. Working with my good friend Andrew Leonard, we have created this site to serve several functions:

1) Provide probabilities of upcoming events created with the latest antilogarithms. These will frequently include aggregated individual-level responses from polls, predication markets, and (once we build up a big enough community) users of this site.
2) Test the latest methodology of capturing individual-level expectations. In plain English, this is online laboratory for experimental polling and users get to play along … it is fun, I promise!
3) A blog that encourages an ongoing discussion of the latest experiments in polling and prediction markets.

Please comment on tables, polls, anything … but, most of all, enjoy!

Thank You!
David Rothschild, PhD Candidate
University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School
For more information on my work please visit My Academic Website.

Continue Reading