Blog
David M Rothschild Posted on

Lawmakers in Pennsylvania are considering switching the way the state divides up its electoral votes before the 2012 election. Pennsylvania now gives all of its electoral votes to the winner of the popular vote–the same method that 47 of the other 49 states also use.

Some meaningful things could happen if Pennsylvania chooses the new method under consideration. In 2008, Obama received 55 percent of Pennsylvania’s vote and all of the crucial swing state’s 21 electoral votes; under the new plan he would have received just 11 of the 21 electoral votes. Since Democratic candidates tend to win their districts by larger margins than the Republicans, a proportional system in more populous states could work to the GOP’s advantage in presidential races. There’s a strong likelihood that Democratic presidential candidates could win the state’s popular vote by rolling up higher margins of victory in dense, urban congressional districts and get less than half of the state’s electoral votes.

Click on the attachment below to see how your state matches up between percentage of population and percentage of popular vote.

Click Here for the Full Text.

Continue Reading
David M Rothschild Posted on

If Christie runs, he will immediately be a top contender. Right now the prediction markets give him a 24.5 percent chance to run for President and an 8.0 percent chance to win the Republican nomination. However, should he proceed with a run, my projections suggest that the prediction markets would instantly grant him a 25 to 35 percent likelihood of gaining the nomination.

If Christie does not run, he may lose his moment. The markets are reflecting growing unease in the Republican party over the current crop of candidates. The reason that Romney did not gain all of Perry’s strength is that the Republicans are looking for someone to take him on for the nomination. If Christie does not grab this chance, someone else will–former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, for instance, or some other dark horse contender. If Perry continues to falter–and if Christie passes on a 2012 presidential run–the predictions markets suggest that GOP field is still fairly wide open.

Click Here for the Full Text.

Continue Reading
David M Rothschild Posted on

It just gets worse and worse for Govenor Perry of Texas. As the dust settles from Thursday’s debate Perry has slid from 38.5 percent likely to be the Republican nominee to 26.4 percent (as of this reposting on Sunday morning):

Click Here for the Full Text.

Continue Reading
David M Rothschild Posted on

Every day that Governor Christie of New Jersey flirts with federal office his likelihood of winning reelection is diminished. In recent months he has become agnostic on teaching evolution, he vetoed state funding for family planning and he has pulled state money out of projects designed to remediate the impact of global warming, even though has previously admitted that climate change is a real problem associated with human activity. All of these are going to hurt him when he runs for reelection, but if he stops flirting with the national Republican Party now, he still has a chance at reelection.

Every day that Christie focuses on New Jersey his likelihood of winning a federal office is diminished. He is a Republican in a Democratic state. He cannot make the policy that wins affection in New Jersey and stay friends with the national Republican Party.

He has a choice to make and my advice is to make that choice soon. The longer he tries to be Governor of New Jersey and viable federal office Republican the less likely he is to succeed at either of them!

Click Here for the Full Text.

Continue Reading
David M Rothschild Posted on

The political handicappers who take part in the prediction markets are not saying that Perry would lose a primary election to Romney today. Rather, they are betting that Romney is slightly more likely to win when the primaries are actually held in a few months.

The chart below plots one line showing the collective poll results for Perry in the wake of his announcement alongside another showing how the prediction markets have behaved over the same time:

Click Here for the Full Text.

 

Continue Reading
David M Rothschild Posted on

The Phillies season has gone just as expected, with a few bumps along the way. Why has the likelihood changed? Because the march of time has eliminated the uncertainty that a long campaign brings to the outcome.

Then the news of Peyton Manning’s injury unfolded, and their likelihood of winning dissipated to near zero. In this situation the movement actually quantifies the value of the missing player (or, in politics, the cost of a campaign mistake).

Click Here for the Full Text.

 

Continue Reading
David M Rothschild Posted on

Perry is no Trump; he has risen to the top in the prediction markets, as well as the polls. This is an important indication that Perry is getting a serious hearing not just from GOP voters, but from political insiders as well. Still, the prediction markets are not quite so bullish on Perry thus far as GOP voters appear to be. Perry is way ahead in the polls (up by six, eight, and twelve points over Romney in the three most recent national polls), but only tied or slightly behind in the prediction markets. This suggests that even though political insiders are giving Perry his due as a legitimate candidate, they are still predicting that his relative strength will wane and Romney will close the race up before the end of the primary season …

Click Here for Full Text

Continue Reading
David M Rothschild Posted on

I posted a blog piece on Yahoo on the likelihood of President Obama’s re-election (which is currently at 50.9%). Click Here for Full Text. As you can see, as bad economic news has arrived over the last few months, Obama’s re-election likelihood has also plummeted.The chart is here:

Obama Re-Elect

and the real-time table is below:

 

Continue Reading
David M Rothschild Posted on

I posted a blog piece on Yahoo on the electability of the Republican candidates for President. Click Here for Full Text. As you can see, Rick Perry took a hit in both his likelihood of winning the Republican primary and his electability in the general during his first debate on Wednesday. The chart is here:

The real-time updating table is here:

Continue Reading
David M Rothschild Posted on

There are three main developments in the forecasts surrounding the ongoing debt situation that I have been following.

First, the likelihood of a deal by Sunday is very low and sinking. Thus, the market is feeling confident that this situation is going to persists until the most desperate late hours. The President has set an August 2nd deadline, but many experts insist that the U.S. Treasury will be able to hold on a few more days past that until drastic measures would need to be taken.

Second, the markets are very confident that a deal will be struck sometime in August, at just the last moment; this number is approaching 80% and rising. Further, the likelihood of getting a debt ceiling deal by the end of August is very close (and tracking) the likelihood of getting a debt ceiling deal by the end of September. The market expects the matter to be resolved in August, but if it hits September, do not expect the urgency to continue.

Third, yesterday I added a prediction to the ‘Miscellaneous Politics’ section of the website – the likelihood of S&P downgrading U.S. Treasury Bills by the end of 2012 and that number is consistently above 50% and rising. The markets are accounting for this possibility. To be clear this is a downgrade from AAA, but the rating can be downgraded and still be investment grade.

Keep your eyes peeled to the below table, because it a very dynamic market!

 

Continue Reading