Key data on this page includes: Prediction Markets (Betfair, PredictIt, Hypermind), Polling (HuffPost Pollster), Bookie (OddsChecker). Click here for details of the data collection and aggregation process. Want some additional insight on the values? Research papers are at ResearchDMR or email David directly.

Winner of Nomination *…* Two or more ballots? *…* Winner of Nomination – Raw Data *…* Republican Vice-President

2016 President – Republican Nomination (Winner)



2016 President – Republican Nomination – Will there be Two or More Ballots at GOP Convention


2016 President – Republican Nomination – Will Trump FAIL to get 1,237 Pledged Delegates?

2016 President – Republican Nomination – How many Pledged Delegates will Trump get?


2016 President – Republican Nomination (Winner) Raw Data

 

David's Musings
Thursday, April 28, 2016 | 1:00PM

Donald Trump is up to 87% this morning. 72% he gets 1,237 pledged delegates and 80% he wins on the first ballot with the help of unbound delegates. Hard to determine the counterfactual, but Cruz’ surprise VP pick did not seem to stem the tide and the former Speaker of the House John Boenher called his chief rival, Ted Cruz, Lucifer (and said he would vote for Trump). Further showing that the Republican establishment is coming to terms with a Trump nomination.

Saturday, April 30, 2016 | 8:06AM

Not much movement over the last two days. Everyone is waiting for Indiana. Mike Pence “endorsed” Cruz, but said some really nice things about Trump. Bobby Knight’s endorsement of Trump was more emphatic. We still have Trump at 68% in Indiana.

David's Musings
Saturday, April 30, 2016 | 8:06AM

Not much movement over the last two days. Everyone is waiting for Indiana. Mike Pence “endorsed” Cruz, but said some really nice things about Trump. Bobby Knight’s endorsement of Trump was more emphatic. We still have Trump at 68% in Indiana.

Thursday, April 28, 2016 | 1:00PM

Donald Trump is up to 87% this morning. 72% he gets 1,237 pledged delegates and 80% he wins on the first ballot with the help of unbound delegates. Hard to determine the counterfactual, but Cruz’ surprise VP pick did not seem to stem the tide and the former Speaker of the House John Boenher called his chief rival, Ted Cruz, Lucifer (and said he would vote for Trump). Further showing that the Republican establishment is coming to terms with a Trump nomination.