Press

On this page is a selection of the research that drives this project, David on TV discussing the work, the press on it, and the press that use it. Finally, a few articles written by David on other blogs.
If you have a press inquiry or you are an academic looking for either data or collaboration, please email David Rothschild.

 

David on TV:
Why Clinton is still a huge favorite to win October 31, 2016 on Yahoo! Finance
POTUS 2016: “Where the Votes Are!” August 3, 2016
David on Fox News’ O’Reilly Factor May 12, 2016
David on Fox News’ O’Reilly Factor May 5, 2016
PBS NewsHour Something better than polls for political predictions? You bet! Video on February 18, 2016 on PBS NewsHour

 

Press Usage of PredictWise (A selection of press that use PredictWise data in their coverage):
New York TimesFiveThirtyEightBuzzFeedRoll CallNew YorkerWashington Post, NewsMax, Politico, Des Moines Register, Mother Jones, ESPN, Wall Street Journal, ABC News, Financial Times, Bloomberg, MSNBCReason, Daily Kos, LA Times, The Atlantic, Reuters, Think Progress, GeekWire, Daily Mail, Kiplinger, US News & World Report, Nature

 

Press on PredictWise (A selection of the press coverage of PredictWise):
When you hear the margin of error is plus or minus 3 percent. Think 7 instead.  October 5, 2016 on New York Times (by David)
We Gave Four Good Pollsters the Same Raw Data. They Had Four Different Results.  September 20, 2016 on New York Times
Why the Whole Trump-Clinton Election Could Probably Just Be Held in Pennsylvania  September 16, 2016 on New York Times (extensive Q&A with me)
Ranking the 2016 Presidential Primary Polls and Predictions  June 29, 2016 on Bloomberg
How Microsoft Helped ESPN With Its Top 100 All-Time NBA Rankings Podcast on February 22, 2016 on Tech Times
From data collection to data analytics to data consumption Video on August 24, 2015 on Microsoft Research
5 Q’s for David Rothschild, Economist at Microsoft Research July 20, 2015 on Center for Data Innovation
Microsoft came remarkably close to predicting all 24 Oscar winners February 23, 2015 on Engadget
Microsoft’s version of ‘Nate Silver’ dishes out data-backed predictions for 2014 December 26, 2013 on Geek Wire
Predicting Oscar Winners Podcast on February 22, 2013 on NPR’s On the Media
The science of predicting Oscar winners
Video on February 21, 2013 on Reuters TV
Big Data Versus Little Data: Predicting the Academy Awards
Podcast on February 21, 2013 on IEEE Spectrum
And the Oscar Goes to … 
February 13, 2013 on MSR
Obama Expected to Win Ohio, Say YouGov/Xbox Poll Respondents
November 2, 2012 on Time
A Better Poll Question: Who Do You Think Will Win?
November 1, 2012 on New York Times
Forget the polls, Obama is still winning: PredictWise – The Trail
Video on October 19, 2012 on Reuters TV
Why the President Is Still a Heavy Favorite on the Prediction Markets
October 12, 2012 on PBS NewsHour
Political Polls, Professors and Election Markets Predict the Presidential Race
Video on October 12, 2012 on PBS NewsHour
Microsoft Researcher Predicts Obama to Win
Podcast on October 3, 2012 on IEEE Spectrum
’12 Campaign: Predicting the U.S. Election 
September 26, 2012 on MSR

 

Papers (Please visit ResearchDMR.com/Research for full list of David Rothschild’s research):
Combining Forecasts for Elections: Accurate, relevant, and timely
Fundamental Models for Forecasting Elections w/ Patrick Hummel
A comparison of forecasting methods: fundamentals, polling, prediction markets, and experts w/ Deepak Pathak and Miroslav Dudik
Forecasting Elections: Comparing Prediction Markets, Polls, and their Biases
Forecasting Elections: Voter Intentions versus Expectations w/ Justin Wolfers
Fundamental models for forecasting elections at the state level w/ Patrick Hummel
The Extent of Price Misalignment in Prediction Markets w/ David Pennock
Forecasting elections with non-representative polls w/ Wei Wang, Andrew Gelman, and Sharad Goel
A Combinatorial Prediction Market for the U.S. Elections w/ Miroslav Dudik, Sebastien Lahaie, and David Pennock

 

David’s Articles on Other Publications (Post-Election 2016):
What Americans Mean When They Talk About “Populism”. Buzzfeed February 17, 2017.
This Poll Shows A Lot Of Republicans Like Ivanka — And So Do 22% Of Democrats. Buzzfeed February 16, 2017.
Trump and the GOP Have Massively Unpopular Tax Policies. Slate November 30, 2016

David’s Articles on Other Publications (Election 2016):
Click for 30 Articles »

New poll: 30% of Trump supporters say they’ll protest the election if he loses. Washington Post November 8, 2016
Chasing Electoral Ghosts: We looked at 130 million ballots from the 2012 election and found practically zero evidence of fraud.. Slate November 7, 2016
Hillary Clinton would win in Australia, New Zealand, England, Canada, France, Mexico and Germany. But not Russia.. Washington Post November 7, 2016
‘It Really Does Get Into Your Head.’ The Election Through the Eyes of Teenage Girls. New York Times November 4, 2016 (written by Claire Cain Miller)
Preparing for Future: Smartphone Only Polling. Huffington Post October 30, 2016
Poll: 60% of Republicans believe illegal immigrants vote; 43% believe people vote using dead people’s names. Washington Post October 24, 2016
Will Republican voters flee Trump, post-video? Here’s what we found.. Washington Post October 14, 2016
When you hear the margin of error is plus or minus 3 percent. Think 7 instead.  New York Times October 5, 2016
All polls are non-probability to varying degrees. Huffington Post September 7, 2016
Innovative, Interesting New Poll Has Some Problems. Huffington Post August 22, 2016
There’s No Evidence Of The ‘Bradley Effect’ In Trump Polls. Huffington Post August 17, 2016
Why you shouldn’t be fooled by polling bounces. Slate August 5, 2016
Quick Take: solid convention bounce for Clinton. Huffington Post July 30, 2016
Who cares about free trade? Not many Americans, it turns out.. Washington Post July 29, 2016
Something’s Odd About the Political Betting Markets. Slate July 11, 2016
Guns And Immigration: Critical Wedge Issues Of 2016. Huffington Post July 9, 2016
Brexit: leave voters relatively unfazed by currency collapse. Huffington Post July 1, 2016
Before you get surgery, check this evidence: Less-invasive treatments work better. Washington Post, June 30, 2016
Four keys for predicting whether Britain will leave the European Union. Washington Post, June 22, 2016
Financial expectations of Brexit for UK voters. Huffington Post, June 22, 2016
There is no “Trump Bump” in the polls — just a growing lead for the Democrats. Washington Post, June 7, 2016
New polls show that more Americans prefer Democrats’ policies. Washington Post, May 27, 2016
Be Careful What You Wish For: Trump Has A 30 Percent Chance To Win Presidency. Huffington Post, May 4, 2016
Will it be Clinton or Trump in November? Here’s what’s wrong with most predictions. Washington Post, May 3, 2016
Trump Goes from Lead to Command of GOP Nomination. Huffington Post, April 27, 2016
We did the math. Cruz was smart to campaign in a Bronx district with almost no Republican voters. Washington Post, April 19, 2016.
Donald Trump Is Still The Most Likely Republican Candidate. Huffington Post, April 17, 2016
Democratic Nominee (Whomever That Is) Still Strong. Huffington Post, April 6, 2016
The prediction markets were right about Tuesday’s primaries. So what do they say about November?. Washington Post, March 17, 2016
Trump is closer to what most Republicans believe than the ‘establishment’ candidates are. Washington Post, March 6, 2016