David M Rothschild on Posted on

9:32 PM ET: NYT dial is down! But, markets are still working. Democrat holding steady at 75% to win:


8:03 PM ET: Polls are closed and Democrat is 75% to win.

7:02 PM ET: NYT dial is at the ready: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/13/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html

5:35 PM ET: Our polling had the Democrat, Conor Lamb, up by 1 percentage point, but it was a very under-powered survey. I was much more interested in showing how extremely unpopular the Republican/Trump tax plan was: https://predictwise.com/blog/2018/03/specialpa18/. This holds for the failed Republican healthcare plan as well. Conversely, Republican/Trump immigration plan plays nicely.

5:30 PM ET: These charts and tables will update all night. Currently the markets have the Democrat, Conor Lamb, at 66 percent in a district that President Trump carried by 20 percentage point in November of 2016.