Tobias Konitzer on Posted on

A lot has been written about Trump Democrats – anecdote upon anecdote of who they are, and what their daily life looks like. For example, in this New York Times story, we learn that Sharla Baker, herself an Obama-Trump voter, “rises early, drives to the gas station to buy coffee, feeds her baby, dresses her two other children, ages 3 and 2, and hustles them all off to day care.” But, what does the political mindscape of these voters look like, of communities that have radically shifted their voting pattern toward Republican presidential candidates? We have built the tool to answer these questions: The Insights Engine tracks more than 500,000 geographic/demographic segmentations of Americans on 160+ political/economic/values-dimensions.

Take MN-08 for example. In 2012, Obama outperformed Mitt Romney by  51.7% to 46.2%. But in 2016, that story flipped. The CD-level vote-share for Trump registered 54.2%, as opposed to 38.6% for Clinton. How do residents in MN-08 tick, politically? There is some hunger for progressive economic policies, to be clear: Some 52% of Minnesotans in that district support increasing taxes for those households making $250,000 a year or more. Likewise, almost 75% believe that it is the responsibility of the government to provide health insurance to people over 65

 

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But, the Congressional District scores conservatively on a number of metrics. Example? For African-American athletes, boycotting the national anthem is a proper form of bringing awareness to injustices against minorities in the US. Close to 70% disagree with the statement: “For African-American athletes, boycotting the national anthem is a proper form of bringing awareness to injustices against minorities in the US.” And, a very high number of Minnesotans residing in MN-08 believe that the US should look more inward in the future.

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So, how does this district tick? Progressive on economic issues. And, this matters: PredictWise currently has the District as a toss-up, trending Republican.