David M Rothschild on Posted on

Welcome to the PredictWise Daily 20180704:

“When in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. — That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, — That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security. — Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.”

1) Declaration of Independence is about recognizing when a system of government is failing, when a ruling regime is not working for the people, but exploiting them. It is about resisting and revising the system before it too late. Not about blind patriotism to ruling regime: If you want to read the rest of it, it is very short!

2) Republicans laying ground-work to go after any person in America not born here (and that is only because Constitution is so firm on people born in the US being citizens). Long-time legal residents and naturalized citizens could get caught in Republican dragnet. Current details are thin, but this seems to fulfill a key goal of the Republican party: have the ground-work ready to do a massive round-up of certain people (not-White, not-Christian) they want to deport, when they get the right event to kick it off. Reminder: Republicans like to talk about myth of dangerous undocumented immigrants (who actually commit crimes at much lower rates and whose numbers in the US are declining), but their policy is all about harassing and restricting legal immigrants as well.

Democratic Healthcare Plan (let anyone buy Medicare, if they want) is a sharp contrast with the Republican Healthcare Plan (make healthcare unaffordable for people with preexisting conditions and sabotage the market for everyone else). Nothing new about this today, but it remains the top public policy issue of the upcoming 2018 election. Earlier PredictWise article: Messaging Healthcare. I am going to add this every day, between now and the election, even when there is no knew news on this, because it should be repeated every day.

Market Watch 20180704: Democrats 59 percent to take the House and Republicans 73 percent to hold the Senate outright and 15 percent to hold the Senate with 50/50 tie.