David M Rothschild on Posted on

1) Quick recap of Round of Sixteen: markets had winner in 6 of 8 games, with Russia in a big upset over Spain and Sweden a narrow underdog beating Switzerland.

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2) Quarterfinals (probabilities will update in real-time here): England is 68% over Sweden, France is 67% over Uruguay, Croatia is 62% over Russia, and Brazil 61% over Belgium.

3) Semifinals: England is now 38 percent to make it to the finals, thanks to being in the crazy easy part of the draw. Despite having the toughest quarter final game, Brazil is also 38 percent to make it.

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4) Finals: Brazil is still highly favored to win the tournament. England would be underdog to Brazil or France, and toss-up with Belgium.