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David M Rothschild Posted on

On Monday, January 29 we ran a poll on climate change.  The poll was run on 1,200 random respondents from Pollfish‘s app-based audience. Methods: blog and academic paper. Here are a few key findings. Americans believe that climate change is something that is happening and that it is caused by humans. This generally conforms with many […]

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Tobi Konitzer and David Rothschild Posted on

A lot has been written about the relationship of racial resentment and support for President Trump. As Michael Tesler has noted in this blog, views on race have mattered more in electing Trump than Obama, perhaps because they have funneled a feeling of white vulnerability. If, as The Nation writes, the phenomenon Trump has “accelerated […]

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Tobias B. Konitzer Posted on

In the 2016 presidential campaign, Big Data had almost become an antiquated term. At least since Sasha Issenberg’s romanticized account of Obama’s win in the 2008 election fueled by war rooms stacked with high-powered machines, the idea of data scientists informing major campaign decisions based on data voodoo generated in windowless caves  has been omnipresent […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Back in July we did some early polling of the New Jersey election. We showed that our polling matched the Quinnipiac polling very tightly, where we overlapped. Again, our approval polling (Booker +31 net approval, Christie -32, and Trump -33) is very much in-line with the traditional polling, our horse-race polling is a little more […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

There are robust markets on both PredictIt and Betfair on whether President Trump will be President of the United States at the end of 2017, 2018, 2019, and when his term expires on January 20, 2021 at 11:59 AM ET. I am tracking them on this page. These market as agnostic to the reasons Trump may […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Poll was run by PredictWise with Pollfish on July 20, 2017. The full dataset can be found here. The Paris Accord itself is not that well know and does not really resonate; but, voters really want the US to remain engaged. Democrats are opposed to leaving the Paris Accord and Republicans support it, but many do not know. That being said, […]

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Tobias Konitzer and David Rothschild Posted on

There is a lot of discussion on the value of “big data” in creating actionable market intelligence. Hedge funds buy up all sorts of big behavioral data sets to gauge the growth of consumer-facing companies. This is not new, decades ago they counted cars in parking lots, moved onto satellite images, then onto caches of digital footprints […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Quinnipiac does high-end random-digit dialing polling in New Jersey, which they make publicly available here. We thought New Jersey, with its 2017 election, would be an interesting place to track with our MRP+ methodology. We can do polling there at roughly 1/10 the cost and 1/3 the time of standard polling. Further, our methods, both […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

On March 23, 2010 President Barack Obama signed the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act into law. The law was mostly enacted by 2013; from 2013 to 2017 the rate of uninsured Americans fell from about 17 percent to 10 percent. The law also mandated a reasonably high level of coverage for any insurance plan. There […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Faith in the US system is low. Poll was run by PredictWise with Pollfish on June 15, 2017. 1) There is widespread belief in vote fraud (not real) and generally increasing belief in voter suppression (real). Only 50 percent of Americans think the 2020 election will be “free and fair”. This is unchanged from March. 2) […]

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