Nate Silver argues in the New York Times that we should not judge Union Leader endorsement (given to Newt Gingrich on Sunday) on whether the candidate wins, but on whether the candidate gains in the New Hampshire polls.
The markets tell a different story: The endorsement’s biggest benefit will not be in New Hampshire at all. It will be in helping Gingrich become the final anyone-but-Romney candidate. The right wing Daily Caller noted this possible benefit; it quotes Republican consultant Dan Hazelwood that “[the endorsement] is a blow to everyone [else] trying to be the anti-Romney.”
The chart shows the likelihood of winning the Iowa and New Hampshire primary contest for Gingrich and Romney over the last two days. The likelihood in New Hampshire moved slightly on Sunday morning, but is very flat. Romney is still in complete control with 78.1 likelihood of victory. Not shown on the chart, the race for second place in New Hampshire also is steady, with Gingrich leading with 39 percent likelihood. Yet, the likelihood in Iowa has changed dramatically, with Romney’s small lead now a large lead for Gingrich (36.0 percent to Romney’s 24.5 percent).
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