PredictWise Relaunch

Since the 2016 election, we at PredictWise have worked on a serious relaunch of PredictWise 2.0, also known as the PredictWise Public Opinion Engine – in stealth, reflecting the new political reality we face today. Here is the short of it:

Our engine turns state-of-the-art behavioral data + polling + analytics into uniquely fast, accurate, [...] Continue Reading

The data is not great here. It is from prices by bookies around the world. I have tried to find the lowest asking price for an outcome and highest bid price. But, bookies generally only list the ask price (i.e., how much they will pay for something). The true probability is lower than their ask price and higher than their bid price; if there is no bid price, than the true probability is between $0 and the ask price.

When will Trump stop being President of USA?

When will Trump stop being President of USA?

 

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