On February 28, 2016 I released my fundamental model for the state-by-state presidential election. The model, using incumbency, presidential approval, economic indicators, and past voting had the Republican getting 292 Electoral Votes and the Democratic candidate 246. The final vote tally (assuming no stray electors) will be 306 to 232 … I (along with co-author […]Continue Reading
New post on Comey/FBI scandal! Clinton is up 5-7 points nationally in the polls and 5+ points in 272 Electoral Votes; prediction markets give her an 87 percent to win. Clinton is far enough up, and there are few enough persuadable voters, that she will need to lose support for Trump to win (not just Trump gain support). Almost no one will switch between Clinton and Trump, but some people could switch to non-voters or third party candidates. As I note above, this is unlikely …
Special Facebook Live. Markets still have some uncertainty as they worry that Comey is a rational person who would have no sent world-wide markets plunging for no good reason. Hope is fading fast on that.
45 minutes of reader questions … answered! Will post evening wrap in a 1-2 hours!
Today’s nightly wrap. Polls are stable, with tight NC. One exception is Clinton pulling away in NV.
Today’s Facebook live. Clinton is winning. Polls are holding steady, as Trump hits ceiling on GOP voters, but does not really go down much. Voter suppression (by GOP governments) is real, vote fixing by Democrats is just a smoke screen for voter suppression. Senate is leaning Democratic.
Today’s Facebook Post: updated map, debate, Miss USA/taxes, Wikileaks, VP debate, your questions!
Clinton is still likely to win and other insights in my bi-weekly Facebook chat.
Article in today’s New York Times is extensive Q&A with me! We discuss PA, ground game, Brexit, and nature of probability.
Facebook Live talk about election updates (Clinton winning, but tighter), do not unskew polls yourself it is dangerous, and states are highly correlated!
I comment on the weekend and 50-state polls. In short, deplorables comment is not very impactful. Clinton’s health adds volatility, but also brings up some pressing questions on both her and Trump’s transparency. Senate is getting really tight as: NH, NV, and PA hover near 50%. Join me live at 1 PM ET on Thursday for next Facebook Live!
I talk about three things today: state of the race (Clinton 75%), bandwagon effect (better you do in polls the better you do in polls), and today’s CNN poll (suspiciously low Democrats, but anticipated shift from registered to likely voters).
Yesterday’s Facebook Live conversation. Next Facebook Live at 12 PM ET on Tuesday, September 6. Have a great Labor Day Weekend!
Most recent Facebook Live on both the stability of PredictWise and what would happen if the election were held today.
I have started to do a Facebook Live question and answer every Monday and Thursday. Here is today (August 25, 2016) link.
I just added two new posts (and, hoping for a third later tonight!). First, I am totally stoked by USC/LA Times poll; I think it is super innovative and interesting. But, I do not believe their topline numbers, because they should not be using 2012 vote as proxy for party identification. Second, wondering how Pennsylvania can be 88% for Clinton, but topline prediction is only 79%? Some thoughts on aggregating state-by-state predictions into topline election forecasts.
No evidence of a Bradley Effect in polling. Trump is doing equally bad in live telephone and online polling.
Clinton enters day 99 with 70% to win. The markets likely assume the poll numbers coming out of the convention will continue to look good. If/when that is validated the numbers will rise slightly. I think anything over 4 pp on Pollster will be an upswing in the markets and below 4 pp a downswing.
quick video of me walking through 1992-2016 maps of voting and polling expectation: youtu.be/vjY7Xj0db-g
I am at the RNC! Not sure what I am going to see, but I am credentialed member of the press for the next two days. Will keep you posted on the blog and on Twitter. Trump 31% to win to the election. I will be blogging live here.
Last night was a bit of a wash for the RNC. The main prime time speech went over well, when it happened, but it turned out to be (partially) plagiarized. Trump goes into tonight 31% to win, 1 pp up from the start yesterday. The big nights will be Wednesday and Thursday, when PredictWise (i.e., David) will be in the audience reporting from Cleveland!
Day 1 of the RNC kicks off with Donald Trump 31% to be the next president of the United States. The expectations for the convention are pretty low, meaning that it could be a gain for him, if he does well. I will be back with daily updates in the Musing section as well as regular Tweets and Facebook updates.
Sorry folks. Slight technical glitch. Site last updated at 8 PM ET yesterday, but I hope to have the data flowing in the next few hours. In the meanwhile, will tweet out updates if anything changes. But, should not be a huge worry! UPDATE: all fixed by 11:30 AM ET today. Sorry for any issues …
Are prediction markets now too stable, because people trust them too much? I explore with Andrew Gelman in a new post at Slate.
I know it is not as sexy or important as the president, but senate races are just really exciting! Wisconsin and Illinois are very likely Democrats gains from Republicans in blue states. Nevada is now a tight hold for the Democrats. Indiana, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Florid are all leaning Republican by a whisker. Ohio and North Carolina are leaning Republican a little more strongly. And, John McCain in Arizona is just 71% to hold his seat.
The state-by-state breakdown of the presidential election in 2016 varies a lot from the 2012 election; in 2012 Republican Mitt Romney needed to sweep Florida (FL), Ohio (OH), and Virginia (VA) to win the election, in 2016 Republican Donald Trump needs to win 3 of 4 from FL, OH, VA, and Pennsylvania (PA). The chart tracks the probability of victory on PredictWise since we started state-by-state predictions on February 27, 2016. New Post: http://predictwise.com/blog/2016/07/election-2016-121-days/
Expect Clinton rise slightly in overall probability of victory in the next few days. I know that an efficient market should have everything priced in immediately, but the state-by-state predictions have slipped slightly above the national predictions in the last few days. Right now Clinton is 75% to win, but she is 80% to win Pennsylvania and 82% to win Virginia. She just needs to win one of those and she is president. At this point I have been constructing the predictions independently and they have stayed very consistent. If this divergence continues I will become increasingly concerned about whether the national markets are suppressed.
If there is a good lesson for American public opinion from Brexit it this. The two set of voters: leave and remain, live in a totally different reality. The remain voters got increasingly freaked out about the British economy as a possibility turned into a reality. The leave voters, most of them, assume that it was meaningless fit of the elite bankers who were upset they did not get their way. A small fraction of leave voter regret their vote. But, remain would most likely win a re-vote, because a huge number of non-voters feel silly for not voting remain!
Brexit happened, what does that mean for the USA? This does not affect how I predict the USA election, because (1) the USA has a long history of data versus a one-shot event (2) the USA has many outcomes to calibrate on versus just one outcome (3) we have more data for the USA election than Brexit. But, we certainly learned that a segment of the UK voters really want immigration restrictions and trade barriers? Sure, but we already knew that; Brexit was leading most polling, except for the last day; at this point Donald Trump is down by 7 percentage points to Hillary Clinton in the head-to-head national polling, and, down in all key swing states. Clinton went into Brexit at 75% and she leaves Brexit at 75% to defeat Trump.
Your humble blogger was on Fox News last night talking about the presidential election and Trump’s 30% path to victory. Hopefully contradicting Bill O’Reilly twice will not preclude me from coming back on … he seemed to enjoy it!
And then there were two. While Bernie Sanders is technically still running, Donald Trump v. Hillary Clinton is now a 99% reality. This morning I officially switched the main chart to the Presidential election with the Democratic nominee at 70% to defeat the Republican nominee. This lead may be surprisingly small to some people (Democrats) or surprisingly large to others (believers in fundamental models). A lot more to follow in the next 6 months and 4 days.
The polls close very shortly in Indiana and Trump is 95% to win IN and 95% to win the GOP nomination. It has been so much fun, but there is a really good chance that the primary effectively ends in 30 minutes … feeling nostalgic yet?
A quick post on the state of the election at 191 until Election Day! Also, just added Newt Gingrich into the Republican VP slot … should keep an eye on him. Apparently he is very eager to be Trump’s Vice ..
Today I have added all governors races and the rest of the primary contests through June 14!
We pushed some updates to the site this morning. (1) There are now timestamps on the charts. (2) There is now a discussion thread under most pages. (3) David’s Musings will now show up around the site. Musings will be brief updates on data, so I can reserve blog posts for more complete thoughts!