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David's Musings
Tuesday, May 24, 2016 | 9:23AM
Polling: Clinton is up 43.6 to 42.0 on Pollster and Trump is up 43.4 to 43.2 on Real Clear. Markets: Clinton is 66%. How do these match?
1) Trump has already benefited from the end of the Republican primary. Prior to the end of the primary strategic or upset party voters will state they will not vote for the other possible nominees. That is helpful to their candidate! (i.e., Cruz supporters may say they will vote for Cruz v. Clinton, but not vote or vote for Clinton v. Trump.) Expect a similar bounce for Clinton when Sanders drops out of the race.
2) Recent polling in the states still has Clinton with a strong lead in many key states. Starting with the 2012 map, Clinton just needs to hold VA, OH, or FL. Pollster averages have her up by 12 pp in VA, 3 pp in OH, and 2 pp in FL. Real Clear has her up 13 pp in VA, 1.4 pp in OH, 2 pp in FL.
3) Markets consider fundamentals. While income growth has been slow, Obama’s Approval numbers are strong. This tends to have some predictive power, in addition to polls, at this early point.
4) Markets consider idiosyncratic data. Clinton has more money in the bank and will likely out raise Trump by a lot. She will have a more unified GOTV game. And, she is extremely vetted. Trump, while in the public spotlight has not been vetted as closely (no one has).
Friday, May 6, 2016 | 5:46PM

Your humble blogger was on Fox News last night talking about the presidential election and Trump’s 30% path to victory. Hopefully contradicting Bill O’Reilly twice will not preclude me from coming back on  … he seemed to enjoy it!

Wednesday, May 4, 2016 | 3:01PM

And then there were two. While Bernie Sanders is technically still running, Donald Trump v. Hillary Clinton is now a 99% reality. This morning I officially switched the main chart to the Presidential election with the Democratic nominee at 70% to defeat the Republican nominee. This lead may be surprisingly small to some people (Democrats) or surprisingly large to others (believers in fundamental models). A lot more to follow in the next 6 months and 4 days.

Tuesday, May 3, 2016 | 5:28PM

The polls close very shortly in Indiana and Trump is 95% to win IN and 95% to win the GOP nomination. It has been so much fun, but there is a really good chance that the primary effectively ends in 30 minutes … feeling nostalgic yet?

Sunday, May 1, 2016 | 8:15PM

A quick post on the state of the election at 191 until Election Day! Also, just added Newt Gingrich into the Republican VP slot … should keep an eye on him. Apparently he is very eager to be Trump’s Vice ..

Sunday, May 1, 2016 | 5:48PM

Today I have added all governors races and the rest of the primary contests through June 14!

Thursday, April 28, 2016 | 12:54PM

We pushed some updates to the site this morning. (1) There are now timestamps on the charts. (2) There is now a discussion thread under most pages. (3) David’s Musings will now show up around the site. Musings will be brief updates on data, so I can reserve blog posts for more complete thoughts!