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David M Rothschild Posted on

The media narrative around the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, is badly misleading. If we were to believe that narrative, Obamacare is unpopular. This is true insofar as more people say they do not support it than support it. But, some people do not support it because it does not go far enough […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

As many of you know I have written in New York Times, Washington Post, Huffington Post, and Slate this election year. Moving forward I am going to post the first paragraph and a link to all extra-PredictWise articles as posts on PredictWise. There is no more unifying issue for the Republican elites than support for massive […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Prediction markets coverage towards a solid aggregation of polling as Election Day approaches. Early in the election cycle markets are all about idiosyncratic and dispersed knowledge of the campaign; polling is both thin and markets know a lot about what people will learn about candidates over the course of the election cycle. And, when news […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Together with Sam Corbett-Davies and Tobias Konitzer, I ran regular polling on a display poll on MSN. We used the data to discuss support of public policy and quick reactions to unfolding events. The idea was that in 2016 we would study the data collection and analytics to nurture new processes, answering pressing questions now, and then […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Together with Sam Corbett-Davies and Tobias Konitzer, I ran regular polling on mobile-based Pollfish. We used the data to discuss support of public policy and quick reactions to unfolding events. The idea was that in 2016 we would study the data collection and analytics to nurture new processes, answering pressing questions now, and then use them for […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

In 2016 I worked with two very different types of data sources: public and private. I used public polling and prediction markets data to predict the outcome of the 51 Electoral College (46 or 47 of 51), 34 Senatorial (31 or 32 of 34), 435 House (TBD), and 12 Gubernatorial elections (10 or 11 of 12). […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

We missed five states (assuming Clinton wins NH and MN): WI, PA, MI were all in the mid-90’s. These were big misses. FL and NC were tight predictions that went for Trump. This is, of course, little solace to those who relied on these predictions. The headline prediction was 89 percent for Clinton to win […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

7:40 PM ET: Clinton 90% after 7:30 PM closing. Clinton is closing up her firewall. Remember, she does NOT need Florida, North Carolina, or Ohio. Basically, everything is playing out as expected. 6:30 PM ET: Clinton moves up slightly on good turnout numbers in Florida and confidence in New Hampshire. Concern over Michigan for Clinton is […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

On the eve of Election Day Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton is 89 percent to defeat Republican nominee Donald Trump. Clinton is 94% in CO, NV, and PA, whose combined Electoral Votes bring her to 274. She has insurance in NH 87%, FL 77%, NC 64%, and OH 33%. Any of which she has a great […]

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David M Rothschild Posted on

Clinton is 89 percent to be the next president, with Trump at 11 percent. Democrats are now 66 percent to take the Senate and 6 percent to take the House. Below is the joint probability of the different parties controlling the president, senate, and house: Honestly, pretty slow day today. A bunch of polls confirmed what I assumed […]

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