PredictWise Relaunch

Since the 2016 election, we at PredictWise have worked on a serious relaunch of PredictWise 2.0, also known as the PredictWise Public Opinion Engine – in stealth, reflecting the new political reality we face today. Here is the short of it: Our engine turns state-of-the-art behavioral data + polling + analytics into uniquely fast, accurate, […]

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David's Musings
Monday, January 22, 2018 | 3:22PM

It has been too long! I have been tweeting away (@DavMicRot), but it is time to get back to blogging and Musing. Watch this space for some exciting new data in the next few days.

Friday, May 12, 2017 | 12:11PM

I have moved Trump Specials to the front-page as Trump firing of Comey has led to a sharp jump in the probability that Trump does not finish his term. Yet, even a few days into the scandal, his probability of reaching 2020 as president is still 50 percent.

Sunday, April 23, 2017 | 10:52AM

French election update: Table updates every 300 seconds

Sunday, November 6, 2016 | 2:22PM

1) Today’s Update on Facebook.

2) Yesterday’s Column: why 87 percent for Clinton and why FiveThirtyEight wrongly thinks the election is a toss-up.

Wednesday, November 2, 2016 | 6:06PM
Monday, October 31, 2016 | 1:22PM
Saturday, October 29, 2016 | 6:46PM

New post on Comey/FBI scandal! Clinton is up 5-7 points nationally in the polls and 5+ points in 272 Electoral Votes; prediction markets give her an 87 percent to win. Clinton is far enough up, and there are few enough persuadable voters, that she will need to lose support for Trump to win (not just Trump gain support). Almost no one will switch between Clinton and Trump, but some people could switch to non-voters or third party candidates. As I note above, this is unlikely …

Saturday, October 29, 2016 | 1:47PM

Special Facebook Live. Markets still have some uncertainty as they worry that Comey is a rational person who would have no sent world-wide markets plunging for no good reason. Hope is fading fast on that.

Thursday, October 27, 2016 | 8:15PM

45 minutes of reader questions … answered! Will post evening wrap in a 1-2 hours!

Monday, October 24, 2016 | 10:50PM

Today’s nightly wrap. Polls are stable, with tight NC. One exception is Clinton pulling away in NV.

Thursday, October 20, 2016 | 4:43PM
Monday, October 17, 2016 | 12:00AM

Today’s Facebook live. Clinton is winning. Polls are holding steady, as Trump hits ceiling on GOP voters, but does not really go down much. Voter suppression (by GOP governments) is real, vote fixing by Democrats is just a smoke screen for voter suppression. Senate is leaning Democratic.

Monday, October 10, 2016 | 1:27PM
Sunday, October 9, 2016 | 7:20PM

Follow me live on Twitter or slightly delayed on this blog post.

Tuesday, October 4, 2016 | 12:16PM

Today’s Facebook Post: updated map, debate, Miss USA/taxes, Wikileaks, VP debate, your questions!

Friday, September 30, 2016 | 5:02PM
Monday, September 26, 2016 | 4:16PM

Here is where I will be blogging tonight, but I will also try to post everything on Twitter. And, here is my Facebook Live from today. Basically, Clinton has a small, but meaningful lead heading into debate!

Thursday, September 22, 2016 | 1:44PM

Clinton is still likely to win and other insights in my bi-weekly Facebook chat.

Friday, September 16, 2016 | 1:13PM

Article in today’s New York Times is extensive Q&A with me! We discuss PA, ground game, Brexit, and nature of probability.

Thursday, September 15, 2016 | 3:58PM

Facebook Live talk about election updates (Clinton winning, but tighter), do not unskew polls yourself it is dangerous, and states are highly correlated!

Tuesday, September 13, 2016 | 11:35AM
Monday, September 12, 2016 | 1:17PM

I comment on the weekend and 50-state polls. In short, deplorables comment is not very impactful. Clinton’s health adds volatility, but also brings up some pressing questions on both her and Trump’s transparency. Senate is getting really tight as: NH, NV, and PA hover near 50%. Join me live at 1 PM ET on Thursday for next Facebook Live!

Thursday, September 8, 2016 | 3:04PM

Today’s FB live talk. Talked about the state of the election, debates, and took questions. Tune in live next time at 12 PM ET on Monday:

Tuesday, September 6, 2016 | 12:43PM

I talk about three things today: state of the race (Clinton 75%), bandwagon effect (better you do in polls the better you do in polls), and today’s CNN poll (suspiciously low Democrats, but anticipated shift from registered to likely voters).

Friday, September 2, 2016 | 4:17PM

Yesterday’s Facebook Live conversation. Next Facebook Live at 12 PM ET on Tuesday, September 6. Have a great Labor Day Weekend!

Monday, August 29, 2016 | 12:20PM

Most recent Facebook Live on both the stability of PredictWise and what would happen if the election were held today.

Thursday, August 25, 2016 | 4:20PM

I have started to do a Facebook Live question and answer every Monday and Thursday. Here is today (August 25, 2016) link.

Saturday, August 20, 2016 | 6:52PM

I just added two new posts (and, hoping for a third later tonight!). First, I am totally stoked by USC/LA Times poll; I think it is super innovative and interesting. But, I do not believe their topline numbers, because they should not be using 2012 vote as proxy for party identification. Second, wondering how Pennsylvania can be 88% for Clinton, but topline prediction is only 79%? Some thoughts on aggregating state-by-state predictions into topline election forecasts.

Wednesday, August 17, 2016 | 11:53AM

No evidence of a Bradley Effect in polling. Trump is doing equally bad in live telephone and online polling.

Monday, August 1, 2016 | 10:51AM

Clinton enters day 99 with 70% to win. The markets likely assume the poll numbers coming out of the convention will continue to look good. If/when that is validated the numbers will rise slightly. I think anything over 4 pp on Pollster will be an upswing in the markets and below 4 pp a downswing.

Saturday, July 30, 2016 | 1:29PM

quick video of me walking through 1992-2016 maps of voting and polling expectation:

Thursday, July 28, 2016 | 4:11PM

After a chaotic day at the DNC, I am to blog live from my couch tonight (and Twitter)! Clinton enters her big night at 68% to win.

Tuesday, July 26, 2016 | 6:15PM

Rolling into Philadelphia now. Will live blog and tweet as the night progresses. This time, not from the arena, but a well situated bar near the arena! Clinton 67% and Trump 33% as we head into Day 2 of the DNC.

Thursday, July 21, 2016 | 4:29PM

Welcome to Night 4 of the RNC. I am live, in the arena, as the action unfolds. Follow me either on PredictWise or Twitter.

Wednesday, July 20, 2016 | 1:52PM

I am at the RNC! Not sure what I am going to see, but I am credentialed member of the press for the next two days. Will keep you posted on the blog and on Twitter. Trump 31% to win to the election. I will be blogging live here.

Tuesday, July 19, 2016 | 5:13PM

Last night was a bit of a wash for the RNC. The main prime time speech went over well, when it happened, but it turned out to be (partially) plagiarized. Trump goes into tonight 31% to win, 1 pp up from the start yesterday. The big nights will be Wednesday and Thursday, when PredictWise (i.e., David) will be in the audience reporting from Cleveland!

Monday, July 18, 2016 | 1:34PM

Day 1 of the RNC kicks off with Donald Trump 31% to be the next president of the United States. The expectations for the convention are pretty low, meaning that it could be a gain for him, if he does well. I will be back with daily updates in the Musing section as well as regular Tweets and Facebook updates.

Monday, July 18, 2016 | 6:10AM

Sorry folks. Slight technical glitch. Site last updated at 8 PM ET yesterday, but I hope to have the data flowing in the next few hours. In the meanwhile, will tweet out updates if anything changes. But, should not be a huge worry! UPDATE: all fixed by 11:30 AM ET today. Sorry for any issues …

Tuesday, July 12, 2016 | 11:51AM

Are prediction markets now too stable, because people trust them too much? I explore with Andrew Gelman in a new post at Slate.

Tuesday, July 12, 2016 | 10:51AM

I know it is not as sexy or important as the president, but senate races are just really exciting! Wisconsin and Illinois are very likely Democrats gains from Republicans in blue states. Nevada is now a tight hold for the Democrats. Indiana, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Florid are all leaning Republican by a whisker. Ohio and North Carolina are leaning Republican a little more strongly. And, John McCain in Arizona is just 71% to hold his seat.

Sunday, July 10, 2016 | 12:11PM

The state-by-state breakdown of the presidential election in 2016 varies a lot from the 2012 election; in 2012 Republican Mitt Romney needed to sweep Florida (FL), Ohio (OH), and Virginia (VA) to win the election, in 2016 Republican Donald Trump needs to win 3 of 4 from FL, OH, VA, and Pennsylvania (PA). The chart tracks the probability of victory on PredictWise since we started state-by-state predictions on February 27, 2016. New Post:

Thursday, July 7, 2016 | 4:33PM

Expect Clinton rise slightly in overall probability of victory in the next few days. I know that an efficient market should have everything priced in immediately, but the state-by-state predictions have slipped slightly above the national predictions in the last few days. Right now Clinton is 75% to win, but she is 80% to win Pennsylvania and 82% to win Virginia. She just needs to win one of those and she is president. At this point I have been constructing the predictions independently and they have stayed very consistent. If this divergence continues I will become increasingly concerned about whether the national markets are suppressed.

Friday, July 1, 2016 | 3:32PM

If there is a good lesson for American public opinion from Brexit it this. The two set of voters: leave and remain, live in a totally different reality. The remain voters got increasingly freaked out about the British economy as a possibility turned into a reality. The leave voters, most of them, assume that it was meaningless fit of the elite bankers who were upset they did not get their way. A small fraction of leave voter regret their vote. But, remain would most likely win a re-vote, because a huge number of non-voters feel silly for not voting remain!

Tuesday, June 28, 2016 | 8:25AM

Brexit happened, what does that mean for the USA? This does not affect how I predict the USA election, because (1) the USA has a long history of data versus a one-shot event (2) the USA has many outcomes to calibrate on versus just one outcome (3) we have more data for the USA election than Brexit. But, we certainly learned that a segment of the UK voters really want immigration restrictions and trade barriers? Sure, but we already knew that; Brexit was leading most polling, except for the last day; at this point Donald Trump is down by 7 percentage points to Hillary Clinton in the head-to-head national polling, and, down in all key swing states. Clinton went into Brexit at 75% and she leaves Brexit at 75% to defeat Trump.

Tuesday, May 24, 2016 | 9:23AM
Polling: Clinton is up 43.6 to 42.0 on Pollster and Trump is up 43.4 to 43.2 on Real Clear. Markets: Clinton is 66%. How do these match?
1) Trump has already benefited from the end of the Republican primary. Prior to the end of the primary strategic or upset party voters will state they will not vote for the other possible nominees. That is helpful to their candidate! (i.e., Cruz supporters may say they will vote for Cruz v. Clinton, but not vote or vote for Clinton v. Trump.) Expect a similar bounce for Clinton when Sanders drops out of the race.
2) Recent polling in the states still has Clinton with a strong lead in many key states. Starting with the 2012 map, Clinton just needs to hold VA, OH, or FL. Pollster averages have her up by 12 pp in VA, 3 pp in OH, and 2 pp in FL. Real Clear has her up 13 pp in VA, 1.4 pp in OH, 2 pp in FL.
3) Markets consider fundamentals. While income growth has been slow, Obama’s Approval numbers are strong. This tends to have some predictive power, in addition to polls, at this early point.
4) Markets consider idiosyncratic data. Clinton has more money in the bank and will likely out raise Trump by a lot. She will have a more unified GOTV game. And, she is extremely vetted. Trump, while in the public spotlight has not been vetted as closely (no one has).
Friday, May 6, 2016 | 5:46PM

Your humble blogger was on Fox News last night talking about the presidential election and Trump’s 30% path to victory. Hopefully contradicting Bill O’Reilly twice will not preclude me from coming back on  … he seemed to enjoy it!

Wednesday, May 4, 2016 | 3:01PM

And then there were two. While Bernie Sanders is technically still running, Donald Trump v. Hillary Clinton is now a 99% reality. This morning I officially switched the main chart to the Presidential election with the Democratic nominee at 70% to defeat the Republican nominee. This lead may be surprisingly small to some people (Democrats) or surprisingly large to others (believers in fundamental models). A lot more to follow in the next 6 months and 4 days.

Tuesday, May 3, 2016 | 5:28PM

The polls close very shortly in Indiana and Trump is 95% to win IN and 95% to win the GOP nomination. It has been so much fun, but there is a really good chance that the primary effectively ends in 30 minutes … feeling nostalgic yet?

Sunday, May 1, 2016 | 8:15PM

A quick post on the state of the election at 191 until Election Day! Also, just added Newt Gingrich into the Republican VP slot … should keep an eye on him. Apparently he is very eager to be Trump’s Vice ..

Sunday, May 1, 2016 | 5:48PM

Today I have added all governors races and the rest of the primary contests through June 14!

Thursday, April 28, 2016 | 12:54PM

We pushed some updates to the site this morning. (1) There are now timestamps on the charts. (2) There is now a discussion thread under most pages. (3) David’s Musings will now show up around the site. Musings will be brief updates on data, so I can reserve blog posts for more complete thoughts!